MANILA, Philippines – In the last two Philippine elections, there has been a strong voter turnout, with the numbers remaining stable, if not increasing.
The 2018 barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) elections – the first barangay polls in 5 years and the first SK polls in 8 years – saw a turnout of 71.22%. The 2016 national elections – considered among the most contentious elections in the Philippines – saw an 81.95% turnout.
Compared to the 2010 presidential elections that recorded a voter turnout of 74.99%, the 2016 elections saw an increase of 7 percentage points.
For the 2019 midterm elections, the Commission on Elections is expecting over 60 million registered Filipino voters. Considering this figure and if voter turnout trends in the last two elections are an indication, how will the Philippines vote in May 2019? (READ: IN NUMBERS: Registered voters for the May 2019 elections)
Regions with highest turnouts
The last two elections saw minimal differences in voter turnout among regions. Regions 1, 5, 8, and CARAGA emerged as the regions with the biggest changes.
In the 2018 elections, Region 1 recorded the highest voter turnout at 79.24%. The provinces from Region 8, Region 2, Region 5, and CARAGA had the same turnout rate. NCR, despite being the nation’s capital region, recorded the lowest.
In the 2016 elections, Region 8 recorded 85.60%, followed closely by Region 1, CARAGA, Region 7, and Region 5. Region 9 recorded the lowest.
The high turnout in these regions could be attributed to "uncompetitive elections," explained political scientist Hansley Juliano of Ateneo de Manila University.
Uncompetitive elections are brought about by various factors such as weak opposition slates, candidates without opponents, and the presence of political dynasties.
Juliano's research with the Ateneo de Manila University's Mathematics department, for instance, observed that in the 2016 elections, there were weak opposition slates and candidates without opponents in some provinces of Region 1, Region 5, Region 8, and CARAGA.
The Marcoses and Singsons in Region 1, Escuderos in Region 5, Romualdezes and Tans in Region 8, and Tys in CARAGA are political dynasties that also contributed to the regions' huge voter turnout rates. They tapped their "well-oiled political machineries" for command votes.
The low voter turnout, meanwhile, in NCR and Region 9, could be attributed to "demobilization." Demobilization happens when, despite attempts to criticize the administration, people's disenchantment is not mirrored in the polls.
A significant showing of this phenomenon happened under former president Gloria Arroyo, when voter turnout for senators in 2007 elections reached an all-time low of 65.51%.
Ilocos Sur as good case study
Ilocos Sur has consistently recorded a strong voter turnout in the last two elections. The 2018 elections saw the province of Ilocos Sur with the highest turnout of 83.53%.
Ilocos Sur is also among the provinces with the highest turnout in the 2016 elections, delivering 86.85% of votes. Siquijor recorded the highest at 89.7%.
Ilocos Sur's high turnouts may also be attributed to the phenomenon of "uncompetitive elections."
Why strong turnouts in last two elections?
The high turnout in the 2016 elections compared to 2010 may be attributed to then-presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte.
Duterte tapped into the people's frustration over the Aquino administration, thus driving voters to mobilize in the polls, explained Juliano. The results of the 2016 elections saw Duterte's easy win by a huge margin of 15.2% over his rival Mar Roxas.
For barangay elections, voter turnouts have remained steady because of loyalty to barangay candidates, explained Juliano.
Given the past two elections and the current political climate, Juliano predicted two scenarios for this year's midterm elections:
- A minimal change in voter turnout (give or take, perhaps a very slight increase), as what happens when a president's reputation seems unassailable
- A visible drop in turnout due to demobilization
– Rappler.com