MANILA, Philippines – All the suspects in the killing of AKO Bicol Representative Rodel Batocabe are already under police custody except the most powerful one: Daraga Mayor Carlwyn Baldo.

He has been pinned as a central figure in the December 22, 2018 assassination of Batocabe.

A confessed killer, as well as accused conspirators, are saying that Baldo masterminded the murder, allegedly promising them millions and a steady livelihood after the kill.

In a quickly organized press conference on Thursday, January 3, Baldo asserted his innocence and branded himself as a "scapegoat" for the crime.

"I assert my innocence. Let us not forget that while I am being used as a convenient scapegoat, those who are truly responsible for the crime remain free and blameless," Baldo said in the press conference after being publicly accused by the police.

Instead of rebutting the accusations against him, however, Baldo chose to remain silent.

His lawyers, he said, advised him against speaking in public until he has read the double murder and multiple frustrated homicide complaints filed against him.

Last December 24, or two days after Batocabe's murder, Baldo said he was "saddened by the loss of a good man, a dedicated public servant, and a worthy opponent in the coming May 2019 elections."

Based on his background, it is easy to see why cops point to him as a possible culprit. But who is he?

Veteran politician

Carlwyn "Awin" Baldo is, by all means, an experienced politician.

He hails from the Baldo political clan of Camalig, Albay, where his sister, Maria Ahrdail Baldo, serves as mayor, and his brother, Carlos Irwin Jr, sits next to her as the vice mayor.

Baldo first entered the political arena in 2007, when he won a 2nd district seat in the Albay provincial board.

After trying his hand at provincial legislation, Baldo ran for Daraga mayor in 2010, but lost to Gerry Jaucian.

He ran again in 2013, only to be defeated again by Jaucian.

He ended his losing streak in 2016, when he ran in the vice mayoralty race in Daraga, beating the town's reelectionist vice mayor then, Carlos Baylon. Jaucian won his 3rd term for mayor the same year.

Baldo served as vice mayor of Daraga until May 2018, when 70-year-old Jaucian died from lung cancer.

He aspired to keep the mayoral post longer by running for reelection in 2019 under Lakas-CMD, which already dropped him as its mayoral candidate after police implicated him in Batocabe's killing.

He was set to run against Batocabe, who was supported by the National Union Party, and PDP-Laban bet Victor Perete.

Outside politics, Baldo and his family manage the mining firm Lima Coal Development Corporation. The mining company operates in Batan Island in Albay – located across the coast of Legazpi City – and sells its coal in a Quezon province coal powerplant.

Curiously, Baldo was named the company's president as of December 31, 2017, despite holding public office. According to the Department of Energy's list of accredited coal traders, Baldo was supposed to complete his term on May 30, 2018.

It is unclear whether he dropped the post after he became mayor following Jaucian's death.

Mastermind?

According to one of the alleged gunmen, the desire to keep Daraga's highest post longer is the reason why Baldo allegedly orchestrated the killing of Batocabe.

"Ang gusto ni Mayor Awin Baldo siya ang permanente na umupo sa Daraga (What Mayor Baldo wants is to permanently sit in Daraga)," said self-confessed gunman Henry Yuson in a press conference on Friday, January 4.

The kill team, Yuson said, backed Baldo because the mayor supposedly promised them livelihood if he gets reelected. The PNP earlier claimed that most, if not all, members of the assassination team were employed as "confidential staff" under the payroll of Baldo's public office.

Baldo allegedly offered his biggest payment for the life of Batocabe, supposedly promising P5 million for the kill.

Baldo also allegedly paid an initial P250,000 for the ambush preparations, but he never paid the rest of the balance.

This led to the suspects double-crossing their alleged boss. The PNP is currently compiling sworn statements from all the suspects. According to sources, the suspects-turned-witnesses all say Baldo ordered the kill.

Aside from the risk of jail, Baldo is facing a suspension threat. The Department of the Interior and Local Government is already preparing administrative cases against him over the killing.

Will he speak out anytime soon? – with a report from Rhaydz Barcia/Rappler.com

COTABATO CITY, Philippines – On January 21 and February 6, various areas in Mindanao will vote to approve or reject Republic Act 11054 or the Bangsamoro Organic Law  (BOL) that will create a new Muslim region to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

At stake is peace in the conflict-torn region of southern Philippines. It’s a fulfillment of a political settlement with dominant Muslim rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) that aims to end a separatist rebellion that has claimed over 100,000 lives in Mindanao.

The creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM – with wider powers than ARMM – will kickstart a process where the MILF will make thousands of Muslim rebels set aside their weapons and end their decades-long struggle for independence.

On December 19, 2018, Mujiv Hataman delivered what is meant to be the last major address of a sitting ARMM governor. It was an emotional but celebratory goodbye coming from one of the biggest supporters of the peace process.

“No matter how hard we tried, we couldn’t do enough to help them. The space is limited for the regional government to decide and take actions,” Hataman said in Filipino.

He promised the new Bangsamoro government will be more able to help. “If BOL is ratified, the next leadership will have wider space and more funds to implement projects,” he said. (READ: Future Bangsamoro gov’t urged to give Marawi a special focus)

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The event was a transition of sorts. In the audience was MILF chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, who is poised to lead the new Bangsamoro government. An MILF-led transition team to be appointed by President Rodrigo Duterte will govern the new region until the next elections.

The Bangsamoro stakeholders seemed as ready as they could be. Even at the ARMM regional assembly, members are discussing how they’ll need to renovate the building to fit the 80 members of the future parliament.

But in the middle of preparations is muted fear, a sense of paranoia that comes from past defeats. Spoilers could sabotage a victory that seems already within grasp. The people here have learned to hope for the best but expect the worst.

Here are 6 scenarios for the Bangsamoro vote, some more likely than the others.

• Supreme Court issues a TRO on the plebiscite
• Violence postpones Bangsamoro vote in crucial areas
• Vote pushes through and ARMM becomes BARMM - with no additional territory
• Vote pushes through. BARMM expands to include Cotabato City.
• Vote pushes through. BARMM wins in most areas.
• Vote pushes through but the people vote ‘no’ to BARMM.

Scenario 1: Supreme Court issues TRO on Bangsamoro vote

A last-minute intervention from the Supreme Court by way of a temporary restraining order (TRO) could cancel the vote over constitutionality issues.

The Bangsamoro Organic Law went through the scrutiny of Congress, which watered down the powers of BARMM on grounds of constitutionality. Despite initial protests, the MILF accepted the law despite, declaring it “imperfect” but “a good start.”

This didn’t stop petitions to stop the BOL.

The Philippine Constitution Association (Philconsa) filed a petition in December 2018 to stop the implementation of BOL, saying the peace process with MILF was unconstitutional. In October last year, Sulu Vice Governor Sakur Tan also filed a petition to argue that ARMM should not be treated as one geographical area during the vote. This is to allow Sulu to opt out of the new region even if the rest of the provinces support inclusion.

Less than a month before the vote, advocates are hoping the Court will take no action and let the people decide.

What is important is to hold the plebiscite as scheduled and establish BARMM, said Benedicto Bacani, executive director of the Institute for Autonomy and Governance. If certain parts of the law will be declared unconstitutional, he said Congress can correct these later after the plebiscite.

A TRO could incite violence, both Hataman and Bacani warned. They recalled the violence in 2008 that followed the High Court’s last-minute ruling to stop the signing of the memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain (MOA-AD), the peace bid of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo with the MILF.  The botched process was used by radicals to agitate MILF members, giving rise to the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), an MILF breakaway group that has become the biggest security threat in Central Mindanao.

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“I think the peace process is more important than the legal issues. At the end of the day, we make laws to have rule of law. If it’s the legal issues that will create disorder, we have a big problem,” said Hataman.

The midterm elections in May 2019 also pose further complications if the plebiscite is stopped. Congress will need to postpone the ARMM elections again, said Bacani.

Scenario 2: Violence postpones Bangsamoro vote in critical areas

The deadly New Year’s Eve blast in Cotabato City underscored the challenges ahead. “A determined terrorist acting alone or with the help of some inside the city can penetrate the most elaborate security,” said Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana.

If the security situation deteriorates against the best efforts of the security forces, violence could discourage voter participation or force the postponement of the vote in affected areas.

The blast happened despite martial law and the close cooperation between the military, police and the MILF. Former Armed Forces chief Carlito Galvez Jr, now chief presidential peace adviser, said the incident was “isolated."

BIFF bomb-makers were the automatic initial suspects. Who else would have access to improvised explosive devices in a heavily guarded area? But the military announced a political angle is being investigated and various camps including the MILF and the city government have since pointed fingers at each other.

BIFF spokesman Abu Misry Mama denied the group’s involvement in the blast. There are BIFF factions that expressed willingness to give the new government a chance, but other groups linked to international terrorist network Islamic State (ISIS) remain a concern.

The military commander on the ground, 6th Infantry Division chief Major General Cirilito Sobejana, raised concerns about the midterm elections affecting the security climate of the plebiscite, as local politicians themselves are leading the campaign for and against BOL.

“There are possibilities that some candidates will hire private armed groups. These lawless elements, the BIFF and Dawlah Islamiyah (another name for ISIS), might transform into private armed groups. We are monitoring them,” said Sobejana.

Scenario 3: Vote pushes through and ARMM becomes BARMM

Observers are saying this is the likely scenario if the Bangsamoro vote pushes through: the plebiscite wins and ARMM becomes BARMM, but it will gain no additional territory.

The vote is simple for ARMM areas – Maguindanao, Lanao Del Sur, Marawi City, Lamitan City, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi – which will vote as one geographical area.

Are they going to embrace BARMM or stay as ARMM?

“If the plebiscite pushes through, I think the current ARMM will vote for BOL,” said Hataman.

By all calculations, BOL’s victory is guaranteed. MILF bailiwicks Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur – which have a combined voting population of about one million out of the region’s total 1.7 million voters – could secure the vote for BARMM. Hataman, who hails from Basilan, also committed the province that has a voting population of 167,600.

This scenario is already a victory for the peace process, said Bacani. Additional territorial jurisdiction will just be bonus.

But the MILF and other Bangsamoro advocates will not be very happy winning in ARMM alone. They are campaigning hard to get additional areas, most especially Cotabato City, which currently hosts ARMM’s regional office. Hataman is also aiming for the inclusion of Isabela City in his own province.

Scenario 4: Vote pushes through. BARMM expands to include Cotabato City.

This will be a sweet victory for the MILF and Bangsamoro advocates. BARMM wins and expands to include Cotabato City, which is currently not part of ARMM but hosts its regional offices and line agencies.

It is a most crucial vote and all eyes are on the city considered as MILF’s “crown jewel.” The rebel group will work hard and pour campaign resources here, but it’s going to be a tough battle against a popular mayor who took a stand against BARMM.

The situation is made complicated by a provision in the law that requires BARMM to turn over properties in areas outside its jurisdiction. If Cotabato voted “no” to BARMM, the new government will start without a definite location for its regional offices and face the distraction of having to decide where to build a new one.

“Cotabato City currently serves as the de facto seat of ARMM. If Cotabato City decides not to join, then we we would have difficulty setting up the seat of BARMM government,” said ARMM Assemblyman Zia Alonto Adiong.

While it is said that BARMM may continue to use Cotabato City as its seat of power, Adiong said there are concerns that “the complex will not automatically be exclusive for the use of BARMM” and become the subject of contest between Cotabato City and BARMM.

“How can we therefore claim that genuine autonomy is present when even the basic requirement for organization to function like the identification of a possible seat of government is absent?,” said Adiong. 

It’s a situation that MILF and Bangsamoro advocates would like to avoid also because of fears that a selection process for a new capital could trigger conflict among the different Muslim groups. The Tausugs will push for Jolo while the Maguindanaoans will prefer Parang.

The Maranaos will also insist on Marawi City, a reasonable alternative in scenarios drawn in the past. But the work to rehabilitate the city ravage by a 5-month-long siege in 2017 will be overwhelming.

Scenario 5: Vote pushes through. BARMM wins a sweeping victory in all areas.

This is the dream for MILF and Bangsamoro advocates. BARMM could expand ARMM’s territorial jurisdiction to include Cotabato City, Isabela City, several towns in Lanao del Norte, and several barangays in North Cotabato.

But winning all areas is an unlikely scenario considering strong opposition from the mother units of several towns and barangays that want to join BARMM.

Bangsamoro advocates have practically given up on Lanao del Norte, where the “double majority” vote requirement is a challenge.

The towns that expressed intent to join a new Muslim region will need the approval of the entire province. Here, BARMM is up against the ruling Dimaporo clan that will not yield an inch of its provincial territory to the MILF.

It’s the same challenge in North Cotabato barangays or villages that want to join BARMM. The mother municipalities will need to approve their inclusion.

This is where the role of Duterte comes in. A video of him supporting BARMM is circulating in the campaign, a commitment that he reiterates in speeches during visits to the region. But advocates feel Duterte could do more to support the peace process.

Hataman said it will do a lot for BARMM if Duterte could call local government executives to a meeting and personally appeal for their support.

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“If I were the President of the Philippines, I would call to a meeting all the LGUs concerned. The President himself will explain its importance. It is better to vote yes for the sake of peace,” said Hataman.

Scenario 6. Vote pushes through but the people vote ‘no’ to BARMM

It’s a most unlikely scenario. “Without a Supreme Court TRO, BARMM will be established. That is 100% certain,” said Bacani.

But there are those who are watching out for last-minute spoilers that might turn the people against BARMM.

In this scenario, the status quo will prevail for ARMM but the MILF will face the risk of losing its credibility among its constituents.

Hataman said any scenario that fails to ratify the BOL will become a security concern because it will reinforce the narrative of violent extremists and allow them to recruit among a frustrated population.

“I’m nervous about the vulnerability of communities, especially the youth, to violent extremism. The sentiment will be: ‘They did this to us in Marawi. Now they played us for fools with the Bangsamoro Organic Law. They gave us false hopes.’ This is the narrative that should be addressed by those in power,” Hataman said.

The buck always stops with Duterte. The first president from Mindanao has had no qualms using his political will and government machinery, no matter how controversial, to push for his pet issues.

The new Bangsamoro government is within grasp. How far will Duterte go to reach the promise he made to his own people? –Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – On January 9 of each year, devotees of the Black Nazarene walk through the streets of Manila for the ritual of traslacion. It is an almost day-long procession of the Black Nazarene statue­ ­– also called the Nazareno – which is deemed miraculous by its believers.

The ritual procession is only one part of the feast devoted to the image. Here are other things to know about the Feast of the Black Nazarene:

1. There are debates on how the statue got its dark hue

Many believe that the image, made by an unnamed Mexican sculptor, was brought to Manila via the Acapulco galleon trade on May 31, 1606. People, however, still could not agree on how the statue got its color.

Some accounts attribute the dark hue to candles being burned before the image. The more widespread belief is that, once lighter in hue, it was seared by a fire on the galleon transporting it to the Philippines. (READ: Making sense of the Nazarene devotion)

But based on the research of theologian Monsignor Sabino A. Vengco Jr of the Loyola School of Theology, the statue was never white to begin with. According to GMA News, the wood used for the statue had always been black. Mesquite wood, black to the core like the Philippine kamagong, was a widely used material during the time that the statue was carved. 

2. Traslacion is only one of the various rituals surrounding the image of the Nazareno

People often conflate the traslacion with the Feast of the Black Nazarene itself. The traslacion is merely the procession, the latter the entire feast— from the various Mass celebrations to the displays of devotion to the Nazareno’s miraculous powers. (SCHEDULE: Nazareno 2019 activities)

On the first day of the feast, devotees bring their own replicas of the Nazareno to be blessed at the Minor Basilica of the Black Nazarene or Quiapo Church. This happens at around noon – devotees brave the heat and congestion, anticipating the next few days of penitence.  (LOOK: Catholic devotees participate in the blessing of the replica of the Black Nazarene in Quiapo, Manila)

There is also the ritual of pahalik, which takes place at the Quirino Grandstand. Devotees kiss the image of the Nazareno, believing it could bring miracles into their lives. During this ritual, they also wipe the image with their handtowels and clothes for the same reason. As they line up for their turn to kiss the image, some devotees kneel while others walk barefoot.

Other rituals include the pasindi (lighting of votive candles), pabihis [ritual changing of the statue’s garments and various novenas or Mass celebrations, after which devotees participate in pabendisyon (sprinkling of Holy Water)].

3. There are debates on what immense devotion to the image implies

Some evangelists have deemed the feast idolatrous. For them, the immense veneration of the Nazareno is tantamount to sin. (READ: Netizens debate on idolatry, bible verses, and religion)

But for some Catholics, devotees need only purify their faith to keep the feast from getting violent. Every year, hundreds are injured in the procession. In 2006, a stampede even killed one devotee.

Reverend Monsignor Clemente Ignacio, who was rector and parish priest of Quiapo Church for 7 years, said that fanaticism and devotion are distinct practices. In an interview with ABS-CBN in anticipation of the 2017 feast, he said in a mix of English and Filipino: “The object of fanaticism is the self…[Devotion’s] attention is to God. Their expression of faith may be loud but it is not fanaticism. Fanaticism has no heavenly intention.”

Sociologists of religion have also studied the feast, which is considered one of the most important events in Philippine Catholicism.

Dr Manuel Sapitula of the University of the Philippines said that instead of just blind devotion, followers of the Nazareno above all aspire for a good life. Participating in the feast is just one of their ways of reaching that goal.

Meanwhile, Dr Jayeel Cornelio of the Ateneo de Manila University said that many believers find solidarity in the image of Christ bearing his cross; it speaks to the hardships of most of the Nazareno’s believers. More than that, they also find solidarity with fellow devotees. (READ: OPINION: The contradictions of the Black Nazarene)

4. The feast is also celebrated in other parts of the country

Devotion to the Nazareno is far-reaching. In Cagayan de Oro City, a procession is also organized using an official replica of the Nazareno given by the Quiapo Church in 2009. (READ: Cagayan de Oro ready to celebrate 10^th Black Nazarene traslacion)

In Catarman, Northern Samar, devotees have been venerating the Nazareno since another replica also given as a gift by the Quiapo Church arrived in the municipality. They celebrated their first traslacion in 2015.

Filipino devotees abroad find their way to pay homage, too. In countries like Australia and the US, followers of the Nazareno hold yearly Mass celebrations honoring the image. They also parade their replicas within parish premises. In 2012, a replica of the Nazareno was even canonically enshrined at the Saint Catherine of Siena Parish in California.

The theme of this year’s traslacion is: “Deboto ng Poong Hesus Nazareno, Hinirang at pinili upang maging lingkod Niya.”

Officials of Quiapo Church are anticipating the participation of 20 million devotees in the feast and about 5 million in the procession.

As a security measure, the National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO) will deploy over 7,000 police officers to patrol the 6.1-kilometer route from Quirino Grandstand to Quiapo Church. Systems have also been put in place to further secure the event. (LIST: Banned items, activities during Nazareno 2019)

With devotees coming back every year to bear the Nazareno on their shoulders, to witness how it may come to perform miracles, and to join other faithfuls in the million-strong procession, it is clear that they believe in the power of their devotion. – Rappler.com

Photos of Presidential Assistant for the Visayas Michael Dino landing his chopper in the middle of the track at Ultra Philippine Sports Complex in Pasig City has been making rounds on social media.

Various online articles say Dino landed just to take a bathroom break, causing outrage among netizens, who pointed out that a running event for youth appeared to have been interrupted by President Rodrigo Duterte's appointee.

A video sent to Rappler shows Dino indeed stepping out of a helicopter in the middle of the race track. Youth athletes still wearing their running clothes and race numbers can be seen stopping to watch the chopper. Some are taking videos on their phones as Dino emerged from the chopper, preceded by a member of his staff.

Dino then walks across the field and is approached by actor Phillip Salvador, who's wearing a red shirt and shades. Salvador then points Dino to an area in the sports complex, for which the presidential assistant then heads before the video ends.

What exactly was Dino doing in Ultra on Tuesday, January 8? Was he aware that he was interrupting a sports event for students?

His chief of staff, Jonji Gonzalez, said Dino was there to pick up other individuals who would be attending the launch of the Malasakit Center in Batangas with former presidential aide Bong Go, who is running for senator. 

“He (Dino) was just told that the chopper will pick up other passengers. While waiting for the others to board the chopper, he took his only chance to go to the restroom before their onward destination,” Gonzalez told Rappler in a message.

Gonzalez also said Dino “had no way of knowing that there was any ongoing event in Ultra.”

Education Secretary Leonor Briones said this was the same explanation that Diño gave her when she spoke to him on the phone in front of journalists on Wednesday, January 9, 

Briones said she “wasn't aware” of any sports event at Ultra at the time.

Students can routinely go to Ultra for practice. 

Gonzalez has yet to reply to Rappler’s query on who Dino picked up from Ultra. But a video of the Malasakit Center launch in Batangas City shows Salvador was also present, wearing the same shirt he wore when he met Dino at Ultra. – with a report from Ralf Rivas/Rappler.com 

A post that has been shared more than 1,500 times on Facebook contains photos claiming to show Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s home city of Davao as “clean.” A reverse search and a check of Google maps reveals that the photos, however, show another city.

The two images in the post purportedly show the southern city of Davao, where Duterte served as mayor for over two decades before he was elected president in May 2016.

Below is a screenshot of the post:

The text above the photos in the post, when translated to English, says: “Here is how disciplined the people of Davao city are. The surroundings are so clean and there is no garbage”.

The top photo shows a yellow bridge with a man on a bike, while the photo below it shows a building with a logo above the entrance.

Using reverse search, AFP traced the top photo to this 2014 blog about bikeways in Marikina city. Marikina city is part of Metro Manila, about 1,500 kilometres (950 miles) from Davao. Here is the city’s official website.

Below is a screenshot of that blog.

This search using Google maps in street view further proves that bikeway existed in Marikina city in 2014.

The image from the Google maps and the false Facebook post contains these three same indicators:

1- a yellow bridge

2 - a building with striped painting of white and brown

3- a tree at the end of the bridge

A reverse search of the second photo also traces it back to the about page of the official website of Marikina city. The photo in the website contains the address and contact details of the Marikina city hall.

Below is a screenshot of the Marikina page that shows the same image as in the misleading post.

The misleading post was shared more than 1,500 times in less than four days by a Facebook group that promotes senatorial candidate Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, an ally of Duterte. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – The campaign period for national candidates for the 2019 midterm elections will begin in February, but many senatorial aspirants have started making the rounds on social media and on the ground already, in the hopes of catching voters' attention early on.

The Pulse Asia survey in December, the first one after the filing of Certificates of Candidacy (COCs) in October, showed that some bets are already in the lead, others are gaining ground, while the rest still have to catch up if they want to be in the winning circle.

So far, Pulse Asia has conducted senatorial preference surveys for the 2019 polls in March, June, September and December 2018. (There was a reported survey by Social Weather Stations also in December 2018, which could have been leaked as results are not yet available on its website. We consider the leaked results unofficial.)

See how candidates endorsed or nominated by major political parties have fared in these Pulse Asia surveys in the graph below.

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With only 12 Senate seats up for grabs in a highly-competitive field, getting into the "Magic 12" range is an indicator of a senatorial bet's winning chances.

Based on each aspirant's preference rating (or the share of survey respondents who said they will be voting for him or her), Pulse Asia projected the range of the senatoriables' ranking among all the bets, as a preview of the place or rank they will most likely land on after actual votes are counted in the May elections.

Consistently landing in the top are 5 of the 7 reelectionist senators: Grace Poe, Cynthia Villar, Juan Edgardo "Sonny" Angara, Nancy Binay, and Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel III.

Poe has so far pulled away from everyone else in all surveys, but Villar seems to be gaining steam. Villar breached the 60% mark in the December 2018 survey when she garnered 66.6%, up by nearly 9 percentage points from September.

Angara also shot up in the December survey, gaining over 21 points from 37.1% to 58.5% to put him in 3rd place. Meanwhile, Binay and Pimentel are seen to place between 5th and 7th places, with 46.7% and 45.5%, respectively.

Many ex-senators are also performing well in their comeback bids: Pia Cayetano and Lito Lapid (who both placed ahead of Binay and Pimentel in the December survey), Sergio Osmeña III, Ramon "Bong" Revilla Jr, Jinggoy Estrada, and Manuel "Mar" Roxas II. All of them have received ratings above 25% in the 4 Pulse Asia surveys.

Two new names in the Senate race are joining the strong performers: Ilocos Norte Governor Maria Imelda "Imee" Marcos, and former Bureau of Corrections director general and former Philippine National Police chief Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa.

Meanwhile, the two remaining reelectionists are teetering on the edge of the Magic 12: Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito and Benigno "Bam" Aquino IV.

Ejercito has ranked at the bottom of prospective Magic 12 placers in the 4 surveys, getting only a 26.7% rating in September. From there, he earned a nearly 7-point increase in December.

Aquino was in and out of the Magic 12 in the surveys, returning to the 10th-16th range in December, after dropping to the 18th-23rd spot and suffering a 12-point decrease from June to September.

Among those in the Magic 12 in the December survey, Angara, Lapid, Pimentel, Aquino, and Revilla got the biggest jumps |from September, while only Binay suffered a drop in the rating.

The rest of the names – those with ratings below 20% – are a mix of administration and opposition bets. Leading them is former presidential aide Christopher Lawrence "Bong" Go. His rating has gone up, in close range of the Magic 12, from 5.9% in March, to 29.7% in December. In a matter of 9 months, his rating increased by nearly 24 percentage points, or grew five-fold.

In the lead-up to the 2016 elections, Senators Joel Villanueva and Sherwin Gatchalian were in a similar situation: they had ratings below 10% up to the first half of 2015 in Pulse Asia surveys, but they gradually inched their way to the bottom of, or just outside, the Magic 12 range by the start of 2016.

Two other aspirants had preference ratings above 10%: former presidential political adviser Francis Tolentino (at 19.4%), and former senator Juan Ponce Enrile (at 19%), who appeared in the survey for the first time, after the surprise filing of his candidacy for senator.

Per slate

PDP-Laban. Go and Tolentino are also among the 5 senatorial candidates running under PDP-Laban, President Duterte's party. Among this slate's members, only Pimentel and Dela Rosa have placed in the "Magic 12" so far, while Maguindanao Congressman Zajid "Toto" Mangudadatu received only 5.5% in December, up from 2.2% in September.

LP. The performance of the opposition Liberal Party's 8 Senate bets has not been auspicious so far. Only Roxas has consistently placed in the "Magic 12" while Aquino had just returned to that range.

The rest of the LP slate has not yet broken the 10% barrier. Their ratings in December have moved up by only a bit – getting almost the same scores as in their first Pulse Asia survey debuts. The biggest gainer among them was former Quezon representative Lorenzo "Erin" Tañada III, who improved by 3.4 percentage points from March.

In December, Tañada got 5.1% (up from 3.4% in September), human rights lawyer Jose Manuel "Chel" Diokno got 3.4% (up from 1.6%), Magdalo Representative Gary Alejano received 2.8% (up from 1.6%), and former solicitor general Florin Hilbay got only 0.4% (up from 0.2%).

Election lawyer Romulo Macalintal, who made his first appearance in the September survey with 1.3%, improved to 2.1% the following quarter. Marawi civic leader Samira Gutoc Tomawis, listed for the first time in December, received 1.3%.

Hugpong. Most of the candidates endorsed by the Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP) party of presidential daughter Sara Duterte Carpio are also doing well.

Six of the 8 members of HNP's slate with ally political parties nationwide are within the "Magic 12": Villar, Cayetano, Marcos, Estrada, Dela Rosa, and Ejercito. The other two are Go and Mangudadatu.

Among the 6 bets who are in HNP's longer slate for Davao region (besides the 8 in the nationwide slate), only Angara, Pimentel, and Revilla are in the "Magic 12" so far. The rest have yet to make it: Tolentino, former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque, and reporter Jiggy Manicad.

Other bets. These candidates have also received ratings below 10% in December:

• Singer Freddie Aguilar (independent, previously filed under PDP-Laban)
• Agnes Escudero (independent, previously filed under Katipunan ng Demokratikong Pilipino),
• Former Bayan Muna party list representative Neri Colmenares (Makabayan)
• Doctor Willie Ong (Lakas-CMD)
• Lawyer Lorenzo "Larry" Gadon (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan)
• Former interior secretary Rafael Alunan III (Bagumbayan)
• Former Manila councilor Dan Roleda (United Nationalist Alliance)

A total of 70 candidates were on the Pulse Asia survey in December 2018. – Rappler.com

MARAWI, Philippines – "That is the ideal death," said 24-year-old aspiring filmmaker Sakeena*. For her, to be a freedom fighter  or  a mujahideen  is the greatest honor for a Muslim.

In her first year in college, Sakeena recalled being invited to a 3-month training with an armed group to prepare for an upcoming jihad –  an Arabic word often associated with war against non-Muslims but which she also refers to as an effort to make society better.

She wanted to follow in the footsteps of her father, a member of the erstwhile separatist group Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), whose story she only knew about through his diary. Her father believed that dying in a jihad as a mujahideen was the greatest expression of faith. "That's the only thing that had driven him, for the sake of Allah," she said.

Sakeena thought of taking up arms. But her mother eventually prevailed on her to pursue her studies.

Sakeena lives in what used to be a prosperous city in the southern Philippines  –  the Islamic City of Marawi . It was razed to the ground after the terrorist Maute Group attacked the city on May 23, 2017, sparking a 5-month siege.

The Maute Group previously pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014. Many of the fighters who joined the siege were just like Sakeena  – young Filipino Muslims or Moros from different provinces in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Most were 18 to 27 years old, according to first-hand accounts from the fighters' acquaintances themselves, and as affirmed by a source in the Philippine Army.

Like Sakeena, Zaldy*, 20, was once lured to that world. "I wanted to be a mujahideen, because as they promise, paradise is assured when you die," he said.

He went to the extent of undergoing a military training in a nearby city. Zaldy graduated from the program on the day of the Marawi siege.

"My friends kept on sending me text messages. 'Where are you? We're here in Marawi!' I thought of going home to join. I called up my friends and asked what their plans were. 'Are we going?' Some did remain in Marawi," Zaldy recounted.

Two of his cousins and a number of his friends joined the siege. Zaldy was itching to join them, but security was tight and he could not get in.

Frustrated youth

What could have driven these young minds at a time when they were expected to be finishing college and starting their careers?

Nearing the two-year mark since the Marawi siege, we look at the factors that pushed the young fighters who came to Marawi, and how these stand in 2019 as a new law grants further autonomy to Filipino Muslims. A test of narratives will also be at play as this comes at a time when ISIS' operations are shifting toward Southeast Asia.

It's not the money.

Months of interviews and research show a central theme: a persisting, deeply-rooted frustration among the Moro youth.

This shared frustration stems from the discrimination and marginalization that Filipino Muslims experience both on a national and personal level, especially when outside the ARMM, said Acram Latiph, an expert on conflict resolution at Mindanao State University (MSU) in Marawi City.

"It boils down to the feeling that you do not belong," added Latiph.

Islamic scholars note that no Filipino Muslim has been elected to a national post since 1992. The last was former senator Mamintal Tamano from Tamparan, Lanao del Sur.

"Muslims are frustrated in a sense that they are not really participating in the government. In the Senate, is there a Muslim? We are no longer in the times of Alonto and Tamano. Yes, there are those appointed Cabinet positions. But in sensitive posts like security, are we appointed there? We are always eyed with suspicion," said Hamid Barra, president of the National Ulama Conference of the Philippines.

"We want to have constructive participation in governance," he added.

For Zaldy, who went to elementary and high school in Manila, it was more personal. "Whenever I introduced myself as a Muslim, people would distance themselves."

Discrimination is more felt by women donning Islamic pieces like the hijab. Some shared having difficulty hailing taxis, and taking longer in security inspections when in Manila.

"It is like you're not trusted if you're a Muslim," said Zaldy.

This persisted for generations because the reason to be angry and frustrated has not been addressed, said Latiph, who himself felt the discrimination in the 2000s when he applied for jobs in Makati City, a business district adjacent to Manila.

Also, the oral narratives about these grievances continue.

Constant retelling

Ask any adolescent Muslim about the current situation and he or she would be quick to point out specific events in history where the Moros felt shortchanged by the national government.

"One of the reasons I found was the Jabidah massacre," said Sakeena. "Not only that, there were many other massacres." She then recited a litany of events, dating back to the Spanish occupation until the time of dictator Ferdinand Marcos, when the infamous massacre of at least 23 Muslim  recruits happened on Corregidor Island.

It's easy for the Moro youth to relate to the stories of their grandparents because little has changed today, Latiph said. "That oral narrative is transferred from children to children, over generations. So that feeling of persecution dating back to the Spanish [occupation] was actually preserved."

The most highlighted of these narratives are the military operations against Muslim separatist movements that were established in the last 4 decades, such as the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. The war cost the lives of at least 100,000.

What were celebrated military victories created a fertile environment for rebellion. Each attack produced martyrs and children of martyrs –  sons and daughters who picked up from their slain fathers and brothers, and who continue to find reason to do so. 

Poor governance

Though the ARMM was established in 1990 as an answer to the Moros' call for self-governance, even the Philippine government has called it a "failed experiment." Incompetent and self-serving officials have been elected through the years, plunging the region deeper into poverty.

Sakeena pointed out that the government's role is to improve the quality of life, but this is something she said the Muslims have always been deprived of.

Zaldy, who grew up in a place where vote-buying was the norm, said dirty politics and corrupt officials are to blame for why majority are poor.

"Many politicians here in the ARMM have made a business out of being mayors. That is the reason why other Moros are getting left behind and why others are not able to receive education."

In Lanao del Sur, where Marawi City is located, 74.3% of the population lived below the poverty threshold in 2015, according to the Family Income and Expenditure Survey released by the Philippine Statistics Authority, making it the poorest province in the Philippines.

The ARMM itself is the poorest region in the country, with at least 59% of the population living below the poverty line, according to the same report.

And as of 2016, there have been at least 4 ISIS-linked armed groups operating in the region. – Rappler.com

(To be concluded)

*Subjects' names have been changed for their safety. All quotes have been changed to English.

MANILA, Philippines – With only 35 days left for the 17th Congress, the Senate still has not conducted any investigations into ongoing militarization in the South China Sea and the government’s deals with the Asian giant.

It has also not started or has not completed probes into the status of President Rodrigo Duterte's flagship program, "Build, Build, Build," and into conflict-of-interest issues involving his two appointees, Solicitor General Jose Calida and former special assistant to the President Christopher "Bong" Go.  

China's encroachment and deals 

In July 2016, the Philippines won a landmark international case against China over the South China Sea, parts of which the Philippines claims as the West Philippine Sea. The ruling dismissed China's 9-dash-line claim, which had been its basis for saying it owns the entire SCS.

Yet more than two years later, China continues to build structures in Philippine waters – with the Philippines sitting idly by, critics said. (READ: DFA won't publicly condemn China over bombers)

While the Senate's main role is legislation, it also has oversight functions. The chamber is also considered the President’s partner in charting the nation’s foreign policy. But, so far, the chamber has been silent.

As early as September 19, 2016, there was already a pending resolution seeking an inquiry into Duterte’s "conflicting" foreign policy.

Filed by opposition Senator Paolo Benigno Aquino IV, Senate Resolution 158 cited Duterte's statement to Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jinhua, saying he would set aside the South China Sea ruling in dealing with China for now. (READ: Justice Carpio hits Duterte policy after Hague ruling)

At the time, Duterte began leaning toward Russia and China and away from the United States, Manila’s traditional ally.

In May 2018, the 6-member minority bloc, together with Senate President Pro-Tempore Ralph Recto and Senator Joseph Victor Ejercito, filed Senate Resolution 761, expressing grave concern over the “increasing militarization” by China and urging the Department of Foreign Affairs to file a diplomatic protest.

The Senate did not adopt the measure, rendering it unofficial. It was referred to the Senate committee on national defense and security, chaired by Senator Gregorio Honasan II.

Another resolution was filed that month, seeking a Senate investigation into China’s installation of missiles on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cros Reef in the West Philippine Sea. It was referred to the foreign relations committee.

Many other resolutions were filed, including one seeking an inquiry into the landing of a Chinese military plane in Davao City, but these were not heard by the chamber.

Senate President Vicente Sotto III said it was up to the committee chairperson to hear resolutions – some filed as early as 2016 – referred to them. He said the committees could still work on them. But with the chamber’s hands full with the 2019 budget and other key legislations, and with only a month left in its sessions, it seems unlikely any hearing would be conducted. 

“That will be at the hands of the chairmen of the different committees. As you well know, the Senate works in committees so it is still possible that committees could work double time. We cannot hold committee hearings during sessions but there are gaps, like after session in the evening,” Sotto said in a mix of English and Filipino. 

Asked if the issue will no longer be a priority for the last months of the 17th Congress, Sotto said: “I don't wanna say that it's not a priority. What I can say is there are priorities, and these were [legislation, not investigations].”

Did the committees simply sit down on the probes? Sotto said not necessarily: 

“If the one on top of a committee chairman's agenda is really important, then [these other issues] won't be the chairman's priority,” he said in mixed English and Filipino. 

Another China-related issue that was not discussed was the appointment of Chinese national Michael Yang as President Duterte’s adviser. While Duterte denied it, Malacañang contracts obtained by Rappler showed otherwise.

Solicitor General Jose Calida's government contracts

While opposition Senator Antonio Trillanes IV pushed through with his hearing on the issue, he was not able to go as deeply as he wanted, owing to the nature and limitation of coverage of his Senate committee on civil service and reorganization. The issue was primarily referred to the blue ribbon committee chaired by Senator Richard Gordon.

Trillanes discussed Calida’s multimillion-peso contracts with the government only in his consideration of Senate Bill 1924, or the proposed amendments to Republic Act 6713 or the Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for government officials and employees.

Gordon was not keen on probing the issue, as he said his panel was already swamped.

At the same time, Calida sought a temporary restraining order from the Supreme Court to block hearings. The SC has yet to issue one.

Alleged multibillion-peso projects awarded to Bong Go

Trillanes sought a probe into the multi-billion-peso contracts supposedly awarded to firms owned by the father and half-brother of then-special assistant to the President Bong Go in Davao Region. However, it was referred to the committee on rules.

Gordon had also said he did not want his committee to probe the issue against Go, also citing the heavy workload of the panel.

“Ang [haba ng] pila sa blue ribbon, naaawa na ako sa staff ko. Sabi ko, piliin naman natin [ang iimbistigahan]. May karapatan kami pumili…. Nakapila, ang dami eh. Puwedeng sabihin kay Senator Trillanes humanap ka ebidensya mo, ibigay sa NBI (National Bureau of Investigation), hulihin 'yan,” Gordon said in a radio interview.

(There is already a long line in the blue ribbon committee, I already pity my staff. I said we should just choose the issues we will investigate. We have the right to choose.... There are many issues waiting for our action. We can tell Senator Trillanes to just find his own evidence, give them to the NBI, so suspects can be arrested.)

“Ikokonsulta ko pa 'yan. Ako, it’s a plea: konting pasensiya naman dahil di naman namin kaya 'yan. Titingnan 'nyo imbestigasyon sa ibang kumite, isa,” he said.

(I will still consult about it, but for me, just a plea: be a bit more patient because we cannot do it all. Look at other committees, they are only handling one issue at a time.)

Gordon's committee earlier held one hearing on Go's intervention in the frigates deal. (READ: Senators amp up praise for Bong Go during frigates hearing)

Build, Build, Build status

The Senate was also unable to conduct any hearing on the status of the government’s massive infrastructure program called Build, Build, Build.

Some administration and opposition senators filed resolutions seeking an inquiry. The measures were then referred to the Senate economic affairs committee, chaired by Senator Sherwin Gatchalian.

Gatchalian said he was unable to conduct a hearing due to lack of time. He said he would try to hear it after the 2019 budget is passed.

“We had to prioritize other bills, such as the NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) charter, mobile number portability, and the Authority of the Freeport Area of Bataan (AFAB),” he told Rappler.

With the resumption of session, the Senate would be busy deliberating and approving the 2019 budget, following the delay in the House of Representatives’ transmittal.

Senators’ schedules are also expected to be full, with the upcoming elections, where reelectionists will be campaigning starting February 12. 

Congress sessions resume on January 14 until February 8. Congress then goes on recess from February 9 to May 19 for the 2019 campaign and midterm elections.

It would again resume sessions for the last time from May 20 until June 7, 2019. The new set of senators will come in to complete the 18th Congress on June 30. Unpassed bills and other measures would mostly have to be refiled and start from zero again during the new Congress. – Rappler.com

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AT A GLANCE

• The police does not criminally investigate the 5,050 deaths from police operations, citing presumption of regularity
• Of the 1,099 drug-related killings outside of police operations, only 327 have been "solved"
• Of the 20,000 or more overall deaths that resulted from the war on drugs, the justice department has prosecuted at least 76 only
• The human rights commission is dealing with an overwhelming amount of cases as they are kept in the dark by cops

MANILA, Philippines –  The memory of the night Manny* was killed remains vivid in the mind of his mother Lita* one year later. 

His lifeless body slumped on the ground with a pool of blood slowly spreading on the ground, turned the gray concrete darker in color. 

It was 10 pm, a few minutes before the vegetables he was supposed to sell were due to arrive. But Manny did not live long enough for the next day’s marketing chores as a man shot him at close range, piercing bullets into his cheek and neck, killing him instantly. 

Just like the perpetrators of several thousand other extrajudicial killings, the suspect was wearing a bonnet, rendering him unidentifiable to possible witnesses. It didn’t help that the act was committed at night and in a place where foot traffic is scarce after the sun sets. 

The absence of a lead that could point to the gunman’s identity remains one of the biggest hindrances to Lita’s pursuit of justice for her son – even if she wants to file a complaint so badly, seek redress before a court, and have judgment rendered on the perpetrator of the killing. (READ: Powering through a crisis: Defending human rights under Duterte)

“Hindi ko alam kung sino ang kakasuhan ko kasi unang-una, walang nakakilala at takot rin kami kasi noong namatay siya, may nagmanman sa amin,” she said. "Pero kung mabibigyan ng pagkakataon, kahit saan ilalaban ko at kahit mamatay ako basta magkaroon ng katarungan ang anak ko,” Lita added. 

(I don’t know who I will charge in court because first of all, no one saw or recognized him. And we’re also afraid because after he was killed, we felt we were under surveillance. But if given the opportunity, I’ll file a complaint and fight anywhere, even if I die as long as I give justice to my son.) 

Until justice is served, the death of her son – which she likened to losing a limb – will continue to feel like a festering wound. 

“Mahigit isang taon na pero hindi ko pa rin matanggap kasi wala pang katarungan,” Lita said. “Siguro mangyayari lamang na makakalimutan ko na iyong nangyari sa kanya, kung magkakaroon ng katarungan.”

(It's been a year already but I still can't accept what happened because there’s been no justice. Maybe I will only forget what happened to my son when there’s justice already.) 

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ALL DEAD. Photos of extrajudicial killings related to the anti-drug campaign are displayed at the altar during a Mass. Photo by Maria Tan/Rappler</font></blockquote>

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Deterrents to solving crime

Manny's murder is just one among the 1,099 drug-related killings outside of police operations across Metro Manila. The killings stretch from July 2016 (about a month after President Rodrigo Duterte assumed office) till October 2018, with numbers based on statistics kept by the regional police command in charge of the area, the National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO).

Metro Manila is the nation's capital. The cities and one municipality make up one of the most densely populated areas in the world – making it crime-prone.

Solving these drug-related killings has especially been difficult for Metro Manila. Of the 1,099 vigilante killings, only 327 have shown promising results: 131 have been solved and 196 have been cleared.

By "solved," cops mean that a case has been filed in court and that at least one suspect has been caught. "Cleared," on the other hand, means that there is already a case in court and at least one suspect has been identified. (READ: PNP says 125 cops punished for drug war-related offenses)

This means that a big majority of the drug-related vigilante killings, 70.2% of them, have not been filed in court and that no suspect has been identified.

We mapped the drug-related killings outside police operations during the first 26 months of President Duterte’s administration (see below).

The city of Manila registered the highest number of drug-related killings outside police operations, with its record standing at 161. Manila is where the presidential residence Malacañang is located, and where the administration’s so-called war on drugs was declared first in 2016. Of the 161 killings, only 8 have been cleared and 31 have been solved.

After Manila is Pasay, the city south of Manila which houses the country’s busiest airports. The city saw 149 drug-related killings, with only 7 cleared and 12 solved.

Despite its wide area and large population, Quezon City only counted 26 killings, with two cleared and 6 already solved. Financial capital Makati, meanwhile, recorded no drug-related killings outside police operations.

Pasig and Taguig rank no. 3 and 4 respectively in terms of drug-related killings outside police operations. The former tallied 122, while the latter counted 112 deaths.

Pasig has the highest number of cases filed in court without any suspects caught, recording 50.

Manila, meanwhile, saw the highest number of solved drug-related homicides, keeping a tally of 31. It is followed by Pateros, which, despite being the only municipality in the metro, has already solved 26 of the 68 drug-related killings in its area.

According to NCRPO Spokesperson Police Senior Inspector Myrna Diploma, the cases are moving forward at a glacial pace because their investigators want to be thorough before filing complaints.

Doing otherwise would risk dismissal at the prosecutor level.

“Dahil pinag-aaralan po namin nang maigi para maifile namin ‘yung kaso sa court (This is because we are studying the case carefully, so that we can file it in court,” Diploma told Rappler. 

She admitted, however, that solving killings is especially difficult because “it involves the loss of a human life.” Besides, in high-level crimes, criminals usually have a deep motive and a detailed exit plan. 

Diploma said homicide investigators usually end up facing a blank wall because of problems with witnesses. It’s not that there are no witnesses to the killings, but rather a case of them being afraid to speak up.

“Ayaw nilang madamay dahil natatakot nga sila or meron namang kilala nila kaya takot na takot talaga. Ayaw nilang madamay (They don’t want to be involved because they are afraid. There are some who know [the suspect] that's why they're really very afraid. They don’t want to get involved),” Diploma said.

Frightened witnesses are not new to policemen.

There are cases where witnesses could easily be tracked by culprits because of close connections, such as being friends or family. Then there are reported instances under the Duterte administration where families point to their local cops as having engineered the killings. 

In 2017, Rappler reported on Tondo locals naming a cop as being behind killings of members of their community: Police Officer III Ronald Alvarez. When asked for comment, the Manila Police District just dared the witnesses to prove their claims. 

Another reason why cases move forward at a snail's pace is that the witnesses simply don’t want to be bothered with them.

“Then ayaw din nilang maabala. ‘Yun ‘yung number 1 pa, ‘yung ayaw nilang maabala. Siyempre kasi pag naging witness ka po is maga-attend ka po ng mga court hearing, so hindi sila makakapasok sa kanilang mga, kung may mga trabaho po sila, ganon po,” Diploma said.

(They also don’t want to be bothered. That’s the number 1 [reason], they don’t want to be bothered. Of course it’s because when you become a witness, you need to attend court hearings, so they wouldn’t be able to go to work.)

Drug-related cases are also more complex than the non-drug related killings. Cops face the challenge of having to crack the circumstances of the murders, besides also needing to keep an eye out for the drug groups.

Doing these, former Philippine National Police chief Ronald dela Rosa once said, could cost the lives of their investigators. 

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'Awful numbers'

The 5,050 killings in police operations are not criminally investigated by cops because, according to them, they are covered by so-called "presumption of regularity." This presumption, however, has already been debunked by a court conviction of 3 cops who murdered 17-year-old Kian delos Santos during a Caloocan City anti-drug sweep in 2017.

Human Rights lawyers also contest the same principle, saying that according to the PNP manual, deaths take away that presumption of regularity.

But where cops do not want to investigate, prosecutors should, according to a petition of the Center for International Law (CenterLaw) with the Supreme Court. Their petition seeks to declare the campaign against drugs unconstitutional.

The Duterte government confirms there have been 5,050 deaths from police anti-drug operations, as human rights groups peg the total death toll at 20,000 if deaths by unidentified assailants or vigilantes are included.

Yet Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors have only investigated at least 76 “murder and homicide cases allegedly related to the government’s campaign against drugs.” 

“Extremely bad, awful numbers. It just goes to show that there is really massive killing that the government is not investigating and prosecuting and giving punishment to,” CenterLaw's Cristina Antonio told Rappler. (READ: Lawyers do dirty groundwork to fight Duterte’s drug war)

The DOJ provided these nationwide numbers to Rappler in October 2018, collated from all prosecutors offices from July 2016 to August 2018. The statistics exclude numbers from Manila, Quezon City, and Taguig.

Rappler has been following up with the DOJ since October for the latest data, but as of January 10, 2018, the department has not provided updated information.

Of the at least 76 investigations, 38 were dismissed, 5 are pending before prosecutors, and 33 have been filed in court. (IN CHARTS: Drug cases take over PH courts, have low disposition rates)

This belies the persistent claim of the administration that they are investigating each and every death.

Justice Undersecretary Markk Perete points back to the police – the same police who claim that the deaths from their own operations no longer need to be investigated.

"Preliminary investigations (PIs) are conducted usually after evidence have already been gathered by law enforcement officers who then file before our prosecution service the relevant complaint and submit their evidence in support thereof," Perete said.

Is the DOJ remiss?

Antonio and CenterLaw want justices to take note that when a death happens, prosecutors do not need a complaint for them to act on it. 

Section 16 of DOJ Circular No. 61 mandates prosecutors to rush to the crime scene "whenever a dead body is found and there is reason to believe that the death resulted from foul play, or from the unlawful acts or omissions of other persons and such fact has been brought to his attention."

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Perete used the wording of Section 16 to defend prosecutors, and said investigations in the case of a death are not automatic:

SEC. 16. Presence at the crime scene – Whenever a dead body is found and there is reason to believe that the death resulted from foul play, or from the unlawful acts or omissions of other persons and such fact has been brought to his attention, the Inquest Officer shall...(emphasis ours)

"In other words, law enforcement authorities must inform first the inquest prosecutor of these matters for the inquest prosecutor to actually be involved in the investigation by law enforcement authorities," Perete said.

Antonio attested that getting witnesses to come forward, much less file a case, has been a major challenge in seeking justice for those who died in the campaign against drugs. 

That's where Circular No. 61 comes in, as Antonio said the lack of witnesses should not stop an investigation.

“Naririnig natin na sinisisi pa ang members ng family na bakit hindi kayo mag-file ng cases in court. Baliktad (We hear them blaming families for not filing cases. It's the opposite), it’s the police and fiscals who must prepare cases whenever there is a killing,” Antonio said.

Realities on the ground drive Antonio to suspect that prosecutors may be feeling “fear, because it’s difficult to go against a system, a concerted effort of not just individuals but state agencies.”

“I would like to think that our prosecutors are not complicit, I would like to think that being trained as lawyers that they have a love for the law and the Bill of Rights. I would like to think that what’s really preventing our prosecutors is mainly fear,” Antonio said. 

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Proving policy

What CenterLaw, and their co-petitioner Free Legal Assistance Group (FLAG) are trying to do at the Supreme Court is prove illegal conduct by the police, in a bid to declare unconstitutional the entire campaign against drugs.

Two local cases help that bid somehow: the conviction of Caloocan policemen in the killing of teenager Kian delos Santos, and the acquittal from drug charges of a tricycle driver whom the police shot at, but who survived by playing dead.

But the decisions of trial court judges in those two cases are narrow, in that they fail to tackle whether or not the police operations in themselves were legal. In the Kian delos Santos case, Judge Rodolfo Azucena Jr of Caloocan even dismissed charges of planting of evidence against the convicted cops. 

Antonio again directed attention to prosecutors.

“The judge may have been limited by what was given him, what framework was given him. It is the prosecution that prepares the case...the judge takes his cue from the evidence that was presented, the story presented by the prosecution so that may have been a factor,” Antonio said.

Perete said that "as far as we know," cases filed so far have already prompted police to review or modify their anti-drug operation guidelines. 

The PNP has revamped its anti-drug operations to address concerns of human rights violations, such as limiting the controversial Oplan TokHang to daytime only, and that all operations should be overseen by the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA). 

"Both the PNP and Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) are in the best position to address any perceived loophole in their operations and policies, regardless of the breadth and scope of the Court's decision in the Kian delos Santos case," Perete said.

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Black eye on the state

The Commission on Human Rights is currently investigating 1,500 cases – a mix of deaths during police operations and extrajudicial killings – a number that Chairman Chito Gascon admits is not enough.

CHR, created through the 1987 Philippine Constitution, is mandated to investigate alleged human rights abuses by state actors such as the military or police. (READ: Things to know: Human rights in the Philippines)

The current setup of the Commission and lack of manpower are proving to be obstacles in keeping apace with investigations, especially with the high number of killings that have been recorded since the start of the anti-drug campaign.

“While there were human rights violations in previous administrations, they were not in the scale and pace that we see today,” Gascon said. “We’re also learning and unlearning.” 

The current status of investigations conducted by authorities, including the PNP, is alarming, considering that it “has the responsibility [of] making sure that the violators [are] held to account.”

“Every single death that has not been solved is a black eye [on] the state,” Gascon said. “Even if they say that the victim is a drug pusher, that is still homicide, a crime, a death that needs to be fully investigated by the police.” 

Now, the CHR has changed a lot in its operations to adjust to scenarios. For example, the police is no longer the “first point of call” of CHR investigators when it comes to pursuing complaints or probing incidents related to the extrajudicial killings. 

Gascon said that if they approach the police first, it’s most likely that they will “face a blank wall.” 

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Cooperation between the CHR and the PNP has long been a matter of debate. The Commission’s requests for access to case folders related to the anti-drug campaign have been consistently rejected by authorities despite public promises made. 

“We ask them, give us your files so we can also conduct our own investigations,” Gascon said. “If they give us files, maybe we can help speed things up but they are not giving us files.” (READ: Panelo says 'simple' to get drug war reports via FOI. It's not.)

In the absence of cooperation from the PNP, the CHR has used its partnerships with several groups, including non-governmental organizations and churches, and even the media to help in the documentation of cases. They hope to double the cases they are investigating in 2019.

“That’s only a fraction of the deaths but if we do it well, are able to look at patterns that are emerging and identify common perpetrators, maybe we will be able to hold someone to account down the road,” Gascon said. 

The Duterte administration has been stingy with information that even the Supreme Court (SC) has had difficulty getting documents on drug war deaths.

The justices were finally able to compel the government to turn over these documents in April 2018. Justices are still going through them, concerned whether the police reports exist at all, and if they indicate that the killings are state- sponsored.

The ICC

The systematic delay in solving the killings does not help the Duterte administration at all in a landmark legal battle before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

A total of 52 communications sent to the ICC allege that the killings amount to crimes against humanity.

Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda is examining the situation, but she will lose jurisdiction if it is proven that the Philippines is able and willing to prosecute the crimes on its own.

But is it, and is it doing enough? – Rappler.com

*Names have been changed to protect their identities

Top photo and Department of Justice facade photo by LeAnne Jazul/Rappler
Mass photo by Maria Tan/Rappler
Commission on Human Rights photo by Darren Langit/Rappler

(Read Part 1 here: Seeds of insurgency: The youth of Marawi)

MARAWI, Philippines – Zaldy and Sakeena's view of jihad was shaken when they saw Moros struggling in evacuation centers days after the Marawi siege in May 2017.

"Look at what happened to our fellow Muslims, they are the ones suffering. What more if we were part of those who did this to them?" Zaldy told us, referring to the time when he trained to be a mujahideen.

Zaldy was able to return to Marawi 7 days after the siege. That's when he saw the face of war. "They called for volunteers for the rescue operations. I joined, and that's when things began to change for me. Each time I went to an evacuation center, I would cry. I'd see newborn babies. I would hear stories about how families left their homes without anything. Even my sibling was forced to flee with just his clothes on."

He thought, the terrorists should have at least warned the civilians before attacking.

Zaldy went through sessions with non-governmental organizations on what it meant to be a true Muslim. That's when he turned into an advocate of peaceful means to address problems. The young man who once trained to die for Allah now tells other Moro youth to let go of the mindset of revenge. "We can't live in the past."

Zaldy said education is the key to moving forward. He is taking a criminology course in Marawi, aspiring to be a policeman one day. He said he wants to be a role model to other cops, and correct the misguided practices that they have been accustomed to.

Sakeena, on the other hand, quit her job in Sultan Kudarat 5 months after the siege, to work as a social worker in Marawi. She said she still dreams of becoming a filmmaker someday, so she can use her craft to amplify the voice of the Moros.

Sakeena now looks up to professionals who "fight" for Islam without the use of violence. These are doctors, lawyers, and social workers, many of whom she personally knows.

"I can now say I am one of them – those who are working for the future generations. No matter how small in number those fighting without violence are, there still has to be. Because if there will be none left, our generation may forget the struggles the Bangsamoro has gone through as a people," she said.

"Even though I wasn't able to join the siege, there are still other ways to do jihad. That's what I'm doing now."

'Heaven is guaranteed'

Modern extremist groups like ISIS and its affiliates target the Filipino Muslim youth's compounded frustration, which has been worsened by the historical grievances and poor governance that the Moros have gone through as a people.

A misrepresented understanding of Islam and jihad serves as the final key ingredient and justification for taking up arms.

"If there is misinterpretation, there is a resulting misguidance," said Hamid Barra, president of the National Ulama Conference of the Philippines.

For Sakeena and Zaldy, the promised perfect afterlife was the biggest lure. "When you die as a mujahideen, heaven is guaranteed. As long as your intentions are right, and it is for the sake of Allah," Sakeena said.

Islamic leaders who sympathize with ISIS use out-of-context verses from the Koran to reinforce their messaging.

The Surah Al-Taubah 29 is a favorite. It begins with "Fight those who do not believe in Allah or in the Last Day," and ends with "fight until they give the jizyah (tax) willingly while they are humbled." When read on its own, it appears to support the extremist group's cause.

Because it is written in Arabic, understanding the meaning of religious Islamic text is tricky. One has to learn the language first to be able to read it. To make sense of its contents is an entirely different discipline altogether.

While Surah Al-Taubah 29 was revealed and given meaning during the time of an offensive by Byzantines and pro-Roman tribes against Muslims, extremists know there is still a literacy gap, so they exploit verses like this very well. They interpret the verse only on the superficial level, according to Barra, ignoring the context or circumstances surrounding its revelation.

Recruitment tool

For some living in poverty, nothing can be more rewarding than taking part in this version of jihad. Coupled with a promise of sustained financial support, it becomes a truly potent recruitment tool. "Whether he lives or dies, he still wins. Then, you'll be rewarded financially as a bonus. How do you fight this kind of threat?" Latiph wondered.

To the well-educated, recruitment methods exploit emotional facets that young Moros can relate to, like conflicts in other Muslim nations around the world. The perception that "Islam is under attack" came out as a significant factor in supporting violence, according to a study done in 2017 by Development Alternatives Incorporated, a private development firm based in Maryland in the United States.

Miriam*, a 27-year-old advocate from Marawi City, recalled many debates with two of her closest female friends about their opinion on the situation in other Muslim countries.

She recalled being asked: "Gaza is being bombed, so is Palestine. The countries of our fellow Muslims are being destroyed! Will you let that happen to us here as well?" Miriam eventually found out they joined the Maute fighters in the Marawi siege.

"We had so many dreams together. Their hearts were so kind. We had plans to publish magazines for Muslim women." She described them as well-off and intelligent advocates of women empowerment. But she noticed two topics that became constants in 2016: their growing frustration with the situation in other Muslim nations, and their inclination to get things done quickly at home.

Miriam's friends echoed ISIS' aim of establishing Muslim-led states known as caliphates, where Islamic traditions like the Shariah law would be strictly implemented. "They were in a hurry. They wanted an instant caliphate, instant Shariah."

Race for time

Peace advocates are now keeping an eye on the crucial rehabilitation of war-torn Marawi. Hundreds of thousands of people remain displaced, with their homes still in rubble. These internally displaced persons (IDPs) are becoming more and more vulnerable, and less patient each day.

"We do not want to be forever IDPs. It's very disempowering. The people have the right to a safe and dignified return. It has something to do with identity, because if you can't return, then what are you?" said historian Tirmizy Abdullah of the MSU Institute for Peace and Development.

Even the groundbreaking ceremony for the city's rehabilitation itself, with its numerous delays, was a red flag for many. It eventually pushed through on October 30, 2018, with the completion promised by late 2020.

A report published on November 18, 2018, said the master plan for the rehabilitation would be out in a couple of weeks, according to the inter-agency group Task Force Bangon Marawi. We have yet to see the plan. 

Philippine Army Captain Ron Villarosa, civil military operations officer of Joint Task Force Ranao, acknowledged the risks if rehabilitation is stalled.

"The resentment and anger of the people can be turned against the government," he said, adding that there are groups trying to take advantage of the situation, as recruitment is reportedly still ongoing.

"How long will the narrative stay that way, where people believe that the problem was the Maute-ISIS?" Latiph asked, warning of shifting sentiments.

"Now, the biggest problem for us peace advocates is that the narrative is slowly morphing. Slowly morphing into something like a monster, where people will believe that it was actually the government causing all the trouble. And this is because of the slow rehabilitation."

Will the Marawi siege be added to the Moros' long list of unaddressed historical grievances?

Latiph said people need to be assured of a better future. One way is through "gainful employment" where they could find meaning in their work.

The Bangsamoro Organic Law, signed by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in August 2018, promises to fill in those gaps.

In it, a more autonomous and more powerful governing entity will replace the ARMM. A plebiscite will be held in Mindanao on January 21 and February 6 for provinces and cities to vote for their inclusion into the Bangsamoro.

Sakeena and Zaldy can only hope that the new region will not give the youth any more reason to be lured back to jihad. – Rappler.com

*Subjects' names have been changed for their safety. All quotes have been changed to English.

Photos that have been shared hundreds of times on Facebook and Twitter at the beginning of January 2019 claim to show Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte having a “simple” New Year's celebration. A reverse search reveals, however, that the photos were taken in December 2016.

The posts, including this one on Facebook and this one Twitter show photos of Duterte relaxing inside a home.

Below is a screenshot of the Facebook post:

“PRRD” are the initials for President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and the southern city of Davao is his hometown.

The tweet shows the same photos. Here is a screenshot:

The tweet, when translated to English, says: “Welcoming the new year of 2019, a very simple person, wearing only sandals, even helping out in the kitchen, talking to maids. We love you Mayor President Duterte, Happy New Year to everyone. God bless to our President, God bless Philippines”.

A reverse search traced the photos back to an article published by local news organization Rappler on December 26, 2016.

The article says the photos show Duterte at his home celebrating his first Christmas as president. Duterte was sworn in as the nation’s leader on June 30, 2016.

A Facebook post on December 27, 2016, also shared the same photos.

Here is a screenshot:

The post, when translated to English, says: “He is still simple up until now. He wears sandals, he even washes the dishes. This is what the elitists, the oligarchs and the paid media whose urine is yellow will never understand”.

Yellow is the color of the main opposition party, the Liberal Party. – Rappler.com

Online reports being shared across multiple social media platforms claim a man who challenged the father of an accused bully in one of the Philippine's top schools has been found dead. However, the video used in the reports shows a 2016 news clip about an unrelated incident. Also, the man is a Filipino-Canadian soldier and the Canadian Armed Forces confirmed to AFP that he is still alive.

In December 2018 a video showing a boy at Ateneo Junior High School beating up another in a toilet bloc went viral and became a mainstream media story. The school subsequently dismissed one of the boys over the incident.

Here is an article from one of the major news channels in the Philippines reporting on the boy’s dismissal, and here is the school’s statement.

Amid the controversy, another video was posted on social media in which a man challenged the father of the accused bully to a fight.

Websites such as this and this then claimed the man who made the challenge has been found dead.

The reports, when shared over Facebook and Twitter, have the photo montage below with a headline that, when translated to English, says: “A man who went on a vacation to the Philippines and challenged the father of [the accused bully] to a fight has been found dead”.

AFP greyed out the faces of the accused bully and brother because they are children. The faces of the girls were already blurred in the false posts. AFP also greyed out the boy’s name in the text of the false post.

The websites that published the false reports embedded a video report with the same headline.

Below is a screenshot of the embedded video and headline. AFP blackened out the name of the accused bully.

However, clicking on the video leads viewers to a news report about an unrelated incident in 2016.

The clip is a report from local news organization UNTV about the shooting of an unidentifed man. Here is the original.

The actual video of the man making the challenge is widely available online, including this one.

From 2:32-2:37, he says his name, adding he is on a vacation in the Philippines and will return to Canada.

“By the way, my name is JP Otazu. I’m just here on vacation, I’m from Canada,” he says. He adds at the latter part that he has been a soldier in the Canadian army for 20 years.

AFP sent the photo montage and the link of the false report to the Canadian Armed Forces. A spokesperson confirmed that the man in the photo is Otazu and the the reports on his death are false.

“I can confirm that Master Corporal Joseph Perez Otazu reported for duty today, January 8th, 2019, after having spent some time on leave with family over the Christmas season. Thus, the posts referring to his death are false,” Lt. Kelly Boyden, public affairs officer of the Canadian Armed Forces, told AFP in an email on January 8, 2019. – Rappler.com

How does Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo help ease pain on her cervical spine?  

She uses marijuana – well, at least in countries that have legalized it.

The Pampanga 2nd District congresswoman admitted she uses cannabis patches to help ease pain whenever she travels to a country where medical marijuana is legal.

The former president suffers from multiple cervical spondylosis or the degeneration of the intervertebral disks, causing pain on the spine.

“I really believe in medical cannabis. As you know, I have my problem here (cervical spine) and when I’m in a country that allows it, I put a pain patch but here in the Philippines I cannot do it,” Arroyo said in an ambush interview in Quezon City on Tuesday, January 15.

She said this was why she co-authored House Bill 6517, which seeks to legalize and regulate the use of medical cannabis to benefit patients suffering from debilitating diseases. (READ: What's in the House bill that would legalize medical marijuana?)

“So I authored that bill because I believe that it can help me and many other people but there was a lot of objection to the bill from the House and from the Senate. That’s why we are just letting the legislative process take its course,” said the Speaker.

The medical marijuana bill remains pending at the House plenary for second reading.– Rappler.com

The Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) have said in separate statements that former Bacolod top cop Senior Superintendent Francisco Ebreo was not on any drug watchlist, yet President Rodrigo Duterte believed otherwise and fired him.

What could have fueled his suspicion against Ebreo, who had received official commendations from the PNP leadership for his performance as acting Bacolod police chief?

Duterte gave an idea of his basis for sacking Ebreo during a chance interview with  reporters in Malacañang on Wednesday, January 16. Responding to questions, the President claimed that Ebreo was “at the very least” a “protector cop.” 

He said his suspicion was piqued when he heard that Ebreo and his “deputy” made a hospital visit to a Bacolod City councilor who had been ambushed, and assigned security to him.

“You know there was this – si Cano, a councilor who has been tagged by the PDEA (Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency) almost a decade ago to be engaged in trafficking, na-ambush (was ambushed). Eh nag-aaway daw (There was a fight). There were about 3 ambushes before that incident na pumunta sila sa ospital, silang dalawa ng deputy niya (when they went to the hospital, him and his deputy),” said Duterte.

“Cano” refers to Ricardo Tan, a councilor who was ambushed, along with his wife, on December 14, 2018, in Barangay Alangilan, Bacolod City.

Despite Duterte's allegation of Tan's drug links, the PDEA regional office in Western Visayas said the councilor is not on their watchlist of drug personalities, according to an Inquirer report.

'Strange behavior'

During the Palace interview, Duterte described Ebreo's order to assign security guards for Tan in the hospital as “strange behavior.”

“What’s the fucking business, you are going to the hospital of a – ambush ng drug lord tapos nag-iwan pa sila ng dalawang security (a drug lord was ambushed then you leave two security personnel with)?” said Duterte.

For Duterte, it would have been expected of Ebreo to send a “topnotch investigator” to the hospital but he found it suspicious that Ebreo and his deputy themselves went there. 

“Nagtataka ako kung bakit ganoon (I’m wondering why). Strange behavior,” said Duterte. 

But police assigning security to a government official with reason to believe his life is in danger is not out of the ordinary. After all, cops have typically been assigned as security detail for government officials.

'Tentacles of information'

Despite the Chief Executive’s suspicions, the PNP said Ebreo was not on its list of drug personalities. The PDEA had also said it had no information linking Ebreo to illegal drugs.

Ebreo had been cited for his "exemplary performance" as Bacolod police director. In November 2018, he received the PNP Medalya ng Kasanayan or Efficiency Medal.

In May 2018, Bacolod police personnel received medals from Police Regional Office 6 for a successful drug operation – under the supervision of Ebreo – that led to the death of Western Visayas top drug lord Ramy Poja. Under his watch, high-value target Rayden Palomero, an alleged illegal drug supplier in Negros Occidental, was arrested in July last year.

So where did Duterte get his information about Ebreo? As with many of Duterte’s shocking allegations about government officials, Malacañang did not specify the President’s basis, merely saying he had his own sources. 

“Probaby the President had a different source of information. This President has many tentacles of intelligence,” said Panelo on Tuesday, January 15.

Malacañang meeting

Duterte held a Palace meeting with Ebreo and the 4 other Bacolod cops he had dismissed on Tuesday evening, January 15.

He had “castigated” the group for supposedly allowing illegal drugs to spread in Bacolod City, according to Presidential Spokesman and Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Salvador Panelo.

Duterte had also been frustrated about how the cops “had no knowledge about the presence of certain personalities in Bacolod who are involved in the illegal drug industry.”

Ebreo and the rest have been relieved and remained on “floating” status pending their investigated. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Six years after the peace deal between the Aquino administration and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), and 6 months after the Bangsamoro law was signed by President Rodrigo Duterte, voters in the Bangsamoro region will cast their "yes" or "no" votes on Monday, January 21.

If majority of residents vote “yes,” they will have – according to the law – a new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) with more power, resources, and possibly bigger territory. (READ: 6 scenarios for the Bangsamoro vote)

The creation of BARMM will also signal the start of a process where rebels from the MILF will start running the bureaucracy and end their decades-long struggle for independence.

To understand Monday’s historic vote, here are some things to know about the Bangsamoro plebiscite:  

1. What are people deciding on? 

The plebiscite is a vote to create the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), which will replace the current Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). 

Residents in key areas in Mindanao will be asked whether or not they want to ratify Republic Act 11054 also known as the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL). This vote will essentially put the law in effect. 

The BOL provides for the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, which seeks to replace – and outdo – the ARMM in terms of geographic scope, power, and resources. 

According to the Commission on Elections (Comelec), more than 2.8 million people – over 150,000 of whom are former MILF combatants – will vote in the plebiscite to create the new region. Some 20,000 cops and soldiers will also be deployed to secure the voting exercise. 

If majority of residents in all areas vote “yes,” the new BARMM would be comprised of the provinces of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan, Cotabato City, 6 towns in Lanao del Norte, and 67 barangays in North Cotabato. 

2. Why are there two plebiscite dates?

Voting for the plebiscite has been scheduled to take place on two dates. The first will be on Monday in the ARMM, Cotabato City, and Isabela City. 

If majority of voters in these areas agree to creating BARMM, a second voting on February 6 will be held in Lanao del Norte (except Iligan City) and 7 towns North Cotabato.

Results from the January 21 vote can be expected no later than Saturday next week, January 26.

3. What are the places to watch out for?

Key areas to watch include Sulu, Cotabato City, and Lanao del Norte. In the run-up to the plebiscite, these places have indicated a "no" vote.

In Sulu, Vice Governor Sakur Tan filed a petition before the Supreme Court in October 2018, questioning the BOL’s constitutionality. Tan argued that votes in ARMM should not be counted as one geographical area. He also questioned the lack of an opt out provision, even if the rest of ARMM wants to be included. 

In Lanao del Norte, the 6 municipalities to be included in the new region will only become part of BARMM if a majority of the entire province also agrees. But the ruling Dimaporo clan has so far showed no sign of willingness to let go of certain parts of its provincial territory. 

These 6 municipalities have faced the same problem in the past. They previously voted to be included in the ARMM during the 2001 plebiscite under Republic Act No. 9054, but their mother units voted against it.

In Cotabato City, the MILF will have to contend with its popular mayor Cynthia Guiani, who has been vocal against the city's inclusion in the new region.  

Tensions have also grown as Guiani accused an MILF commander of supposedly masterminding the deadly New Year’s Eve blast in Cotabato City. It’s an accusation the MILF denied as they condemned the attack.  

Cotabato is also considered a crucial city for the plebiscite. If the city votes against joining the proposed new region, the BARMM's regional government will have to move government offices to a new capital.

4. What is the history?

It has taken years to arrive at the chance to create BARMM.

The BOL is the culmination of a peace deal signed between the past administrations and the MILF. It builds upon the gains of previous Moro peace agreements since the 1970s. 

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Former president Aquino had wanted the law passed before he stepped down, but a botched police operation in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, in 2015 derailed its approval.

Despite this, discussions were again taken up under the administration of President Duterte, the first Mindanao president.

While the plebiscite seeks to create a new and more powerful entity, what’s also at stake is peace in conflict-torn region. Years of war and rebellion have claimed the lives of over 150,000 in Mindanao.  

For this reason, both the government and MILF rallied for the law, saying it is a "formula for peace, development, and progress."

5. What is the impact on Mindanao residents? 

If residents agree with the BOL, the Bangsamoro people will be a step closer to self-rule.

The law paves the way for the creation of the Bangsamoro government, which will be headed by a chief minister and a ceremonial leader called a Wali. 

A regional parliament of 80 members will also be created to pass laws and decide on the region’s budget. Here, representatives from regional parties, districts, and sectors will be allocated a portion of the seats.  

The Bangsamoro government will also enjoy exclusive powers over some areas such as budgeting, economic zones, social services, and a justice system. 

Once the BOL is ratified, the MILF is expected to become the dominant political force in the region since they will automatically occupy a majority of the 80-member Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA). 

The BTA will be largely in charge of governing the new region until the May 2022 elections, when new officials will be elected. 

According to results of a survey conducted by peace-building organization International Alert Philippines in December 2018, residents who agree with the BOL believe that it will create more government jobs. This is primarily because the BOL mandates the creation of new government departments and offices in the BARMM.

The regional parliament will still work with the national government. The latter will also still retain powers over national matters such as foreign affairs and a national military and police. – Rappler.com

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MANILA, Philippines – When Mindanaoans step out to vote in the Bangsamoro plebiscite on Monday, January 21, they will determine whether or not the envisioned new autononomous regional government will expand its territory or remain limited to its current set-up.

But the future Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) is merely a political structure. For decades, it's the power brokers – the political clans, Moro rebel groups, and even terrorist groups – that have shaped and will shape past and future autonomous regions in Mindanao. (READ: 6 scenarios for the Bangsamoro vote)

They hold sway over people, have access to money, arms, and the bureaucracy, and influence politics and security in the provinces, cities, towns, and barangays (villages) that will comprise the BARMM – if the BARMM wins a “yes” vote on January 21. 

Who and what are these powerful groups?

• The well-entrenched families and clans that control all levers of local power, and government coffers.  
• The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which are the two biggest rebel movements that have signed various peace deals with the Philippine government. The latest peace deal with the previous Aquino government, sealed by the MILF, is the basis of the Bangsamoro Organic Law that is the subject of the plebiscite on Monday. (READ: After Bangsamoro law, a bright yet bumpy path to peace)
• The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), Maute and other ISIS-allied groups, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighers (BIFF), which advocate terrorism, engage in crime for fund-raising, and reject the peace process. (READ: Global threat forecast in 2019)

Rappler maps out where these various groups hold influence in the territories that could comprise BARMM – the provinces of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan, the city of Cotabato, 6 towns of Lanao del Norte, and 67 barangays (villages) in North Cotabato.

Click the "next" icon or gray dots under the map to navigate through 3 maps – a map for political clans, a map for Moro separatist groups, and a map for extremist and terrorist groups.

The maps only show their clout on the provincial level.

If a group holds influence only in some or a few parts of that province, their clout is visualized through vertical and horizontal lines, respectively – to show the limited nature of the group’s power there.

Data on the powerful political clans in each province was largely sourced from the non-government International Alert Philippines. We also verified and counter-checked the data in interviews with Professor Julkipli Wadi of the University of the Philippines (UP) Institute of Islamic Studies and other longtime residents and observers in ARMM.  

MAJOR PLAYERS

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Earlier, we wrote about 6 scenarios for the plebiscite.

But under BARMM, what’s next for these groups and clans?

MILF: From rebellion to governance

The greatest shift in the power dynamic will favor the MILF in the short term.

The rebel group that former president Joseph Estrada once vowed to crush to irrelevance, will become the dominant political force in the region. MILF leaders and members will automatically occupy a majority of the 80-member Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), the entity that will govern the fledgling region until the May 2022 elections when new officials will be elected.

MILF chairman Murad Ebrahim is a shoo-in for the post of BARMM Chief Minister, the head of the BTA to be appointed by President Rodrigo Duterte.

The challenge for the MILF is to transition from being a separatist group to a group tasked with governing, delivering social services, and managing public funds.

It's the same situation faced by the the MNLF more than 2 decades ago, after it signed a peace agreement with the Ramos administration. MNLF founding chairperson Nur Misuari eventually was elected governor of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), but even his own comrades later accused him of mismanagement and incompetence. Some of them formed factions to oppose him. 

On the MILF,  UP political science department chairperson Ela Atienza told Rappler, “Can they (MILF) be professional politicians and bureaucrats? Because the challenge always is, can you govern? You’re used to fighting, challenging authority. Now you will be given a chance to govern, so can you govern?”

Another challenge is how the MILF will negotiate with the existing groups that we identified in the maps.

The Dimaporos, Mangudadatus, Adiongs, and Tans all have strong networks among their respective communities as well as with national government officials. They also control many businesses. Will the MILF try to exert more influence over the clans? Will they try to dislodge clans’ ties with national government or transfer those links to them?

International Alert’s Senior Peace and Conflict Adviser Pancho Lara wonders if the MILF would be aggressive in imposing taxes, which will surely hit the political clans and their businesses.

“One option is, for political stability, they won’t rock the boat before 2022. They won’t collect taxes. Anyway, their justification will be, we have money, because of the block grant,” Lara told Rappler in an interview.

In the Bangsamoro Organic Law, the BTA will be allocated transition funds from the national budget and will get the remaining funds intended for ARMM.

The end-goal of the MILF, of course, is to retain power by getting elected in the May 2022 elections.

But to do so, they have to convince the people of BARMM that their style of governance works. The pressure is on them to deliver results in the next two years: reduced poverty, more businesses and jobs, and stability among ethnic clans and economic classes.

People of the Bangsamoro region will also look to the group to see how well they maintain peace and security and deal with high-stakes issues such as the rehabiltiation of war-torn Marawi City. 

And so the MILF might pursue a second option: impose taxes to show BARMM, under their leadership, can generate revenue on its own – a key to good governance.

“That can also get them support. If they say that ‘No, we're going to collect taxes and we're going to show people how we're going to use those taxes.’ But then with that particular action, they will square off with the clans,” said Lara.

Political clans: Retaining, expanding their power

Meanwhile, BARMM poses risks as well as benefits for the political clans.

In the first two years, they will have to contend with the new clout of the MILF.

Lara said that before 2022, the clans will “play along” with the MILF. But come 2022 elections, the BARMM leadership will be up for grabs. It's the same fate that the MNLF-led ARMM also suffered before.

The political clans will definitely want their members in government posts, especially in the new parliament that will pass laws and decide on the region’s budget. Seats in this parliament will be coveted, since the region’s budget is assured, given the block grant (around P60 billion) stipulated in the Bangsamoro Organic Law. 

There are also already leaders of certain political clans eyeing the Chief Minister position in 2022. Will they succeed in replacing Murad or will Murad himself get elected for another term?

Extremist, terror groups: Can they still attract followers?

If BARMM is able to improve the lives of people in the region, naturally the Abu Sayyaf, BIFF, and Maute Group will have a harder time attracting adherents to their radical cause. There'd be less grievances to exploit and less fertile ground to plant extremist thought.

If things get worse in BARMM – deteriorated qualify of life, more friction among ethnic groups and clans, heightened discrimination – it is possible the opposite would happen. More BARMM residents would have reason to give up on the government and turn to these extremist groups instead. 

A sore point is Marawi, where rehabilitation is slow and which Muslim radicals use to recruit the youth to their cause. (READ: Seeds of insurgency: The youth of Marawi)

It’s up to the future BTA and national government to ensure these terror groups will have less capacity to wreak havoc. Such efforts would include controlling firearms in the region, reducing capability to make bombs and carry out attacks, and stemming their access to financial sources, among others.

But there is a 4th power player: the people of the Bangsamoro themselves.

The residents of BARMM hold the power of the ballot. They decide, by a stroke of the pen, who will win a seat in the Parliament. They can decide to say no when terror groups come knocking on their doors with promises. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – The Bangsamoro plebiscite on Monday, January 21, is historic, and as with all historic sagas, has its own cast of characters.

These key personalities will make or break the plebiscite – a political exercise where 2.8 million people in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), Cotabato City, and Isabela City are expected to vote on whether or not to approve the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL). (READ: Power brokers in the Bangsamoro region)

The BOL – if voters say “yes” to it – will create a new Bangsamoro region (called the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM), a region with more powers, assured funding, and a new system of government. (READ: What you need to know about the Bangsamoro plebiscite)

Three actors are influential “pro-BOL” voices – the Muslim rebel who devoted decades of his life to the dream of a Bangsamoro region, the governor who will be displaced but still thinks the BOL is the answer, and Mindanao's first president who had promised the BOL.

Then there are the “anti-BOL” personalities – the Sulu governor who claims the law violates the Constitution, the unyielding mayor of a very critical city, and a political family determined to keep their towns from joining the new region.

The last cast of characters are the ones in charge of making the plebiscite happen. There’s the elections chief who hails from Mindanao and the top military and police commanders who know any violence could discourage people from stepping out to vote. (READ: 6 scenarios for the Bangsamoro vote)

THE PROS

 Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, MILF chairman

Murad is the chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the dominant Muslim rebel group in Mindanao. Talks between the MILF and the government had paved the way for the BOL.

Because of this, the BOL states that the MILF will "lead" the transition to the BARMM, which, in concrete terms, means the MILF gets a majority of seats in the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA). This is the entity that will govern the BARMM until the region holds elections in 2022.

A chief minister will head the BTA and this position will likely go to Murad.

Who is Murad? Before he talked peace with the government, he was a fearsome MILF commander. Murad’s decades of rebellion began in 1972 when he joined the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) led by former UP professor Nur Misuari. A group within the MILF disagreed with Nur over a peace deal with the government and broke away in 1981. This group became the MILF. 

Murad became the head of MILF’s army, the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF). He commanded at least 12,000 men. When MILF’s then-leader Hashim Salamat died in 2003, Murad took the reins. After years of fighting government forces, the MILF began peace talks with the Arroyo and then the Aquino administration. In 2012, Murad witnessed the signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro, which laid the groundwork for the BOL.

A calculating military tactician, Murad in person is soft-spoken and deliberate. Does he have the qualities to lead BARMM in its infancy?

Mujiv Hataman, ARMM governor

For the past 7 years, the ARMM has known no other leader than Hataman. One of 3 influential brothers from Basilan, Hataman was first appointed ARMM governor by then president Benigno Aquino III. Duterte kept him as ARMM governor and, according to Hataman, rejected his offer to resign.

While some claim the ARMM has suffered from a weak bureaucracy, corruption, and nepotism, especially when it was helmed by MNLF leader Misuari, Hataman sought to change all that. 

He said the ARMM has brought better infrastructure, social services, and improved quality of life. But the limitations inherent in the ARMM has led Hataman to support the BOL. 

In a way, the Bangsamoro vote on January 21 will be a referendum on Hataman’s leadership of ARMM. Do people think the ARMM is sufficient to deliver a good future for them? Or will they vote to replace it?

But if BARMM is created, Hataman won’t be out of the picture. He will still be a part of the BTA until June 30. He is also running for congressman representing Basilan. His wife, Sitti Djalia Turabin, is running for Isabela City mayor.  

President Rodrigo Duterte

Expectations are high that the BOL will be ratified under the watch of Duterte, the first Mindanaoan president. Duterte has pushed for the BOL since he was a 2016 presidential candidate and advocated for it as president.

Building on the gains of the Aquino administration, Duterte pursued talks with the MILF, forming a commission to draft a Bangsamoro law. To appease rival Moro rebel group MNLF, Duterte allowed one faction to join the effort.

When Congress faced an impasse on contentious provisions of the BOL when it was still a bill, Duterte stepped in at the final hour to resolve it.  

With Duterte’s high popularity ratings, sky-high in Mindanao, can he ensure the creation of the BARMM? There are even many expecting that more areas will vote to join the BARMM, making it larger than the ARMM. This would be a win for MILF and BOL supporters. It’s something Duterte may be able to deliver, if he so wanted. 

THE ANTIS 

Sakur Tan, Sulu kingpin

The powerful Tans of Sulu have tried to block the BOL by filing a petition with the Supreme Court. They say the BARMM is unconstitutional and violates rights of Sulu since votes in ARMM will be counted as one regional vote, instead of per province. 

The Tans' opposition to BOL also stems from the belief that the BARMM will intrude on the Sulu Sultanate’s historical territories. The family's kingpin, Sakur Tan, sides with the Royal Council of the Sulu Sultanate and even functions as its special envoy and spokesman. 

But if the BOL is ratified, there are some who suspect Tan himself will vie for Chief Minister in 2022. 

Cynthia Guiani-Sayadi, Cotabato City mayor

Guiani-Sayadi is the chief executive of a city critical to the Bangsamoro plebiscite. Cotabato City is considered the “crown jewel” of the ARMM because it’s where all the government offices are. Though it is not part of the ARMM, it is the region’s capital.

So if Cotabato City refuses to join BARMM, the BARMM government will have to look for another capital and build a new set of government buildings. 

But Guiani-Sayadi is anti-BOL. With her influence over a majority of the city’s local officials, many expect Cotabato City to vote “no.” There are some who wonder if Duterte will make a last-ditch effort to turn the mayor around. 

Guiani-Sayadi is seeking reelection in May. She is pitted against Maguindanao Representative Bai Sandra Sema who is pro-BOL. In this way, the Bangsamoro plebiscite has influenced Cotabato’s politics. 

The Dimaporos of Lanao del Norte 

The powerful Dimaporos support the creation of BARMM but they won’t let 6 towns in Lanao del Norte be part of it.

Six municipalities – Baloi, Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagoloan II, Tangal – will be participating in the February 6 plebiscite. But even if they vote yes, a majority of voters in the entirety of Lanao del Norte will have to agree to let them join the BARMM.

This is because the BOL requires the mother local governments to agree to cede their towns or barangays to the BARMM.

Lanao del Norte 2nd District Representative Abdullah Dimaporo, his wife Governor Imelda Quibranza-Dimaporo, and their son Lanao del Norte 1st District Representative Khalid Dimaporo are leading the campaign to keep the municipalities from joining the BARMM.

The governor, as quoted by the Philippine News Agency, said the loss of these towns would mean lower Internal Revenue Allotment for the province and the loss of a “buffer” zone as protection for the province. 

THE GUARDIANS 

Sheriff Abas, Comelec chief

The pressure is on for Sheriff Abas, the first Commission on Elections (Comelec) chief from Mindanao, to ensure the success of a plebiscite so critical to the southern region’s future.

Abas is also the first Muslim Comelec chief and hails from plebiscite frontliner Cotabato City.

Can an Abas-led Comelec prevent vote-buying and poll fraud? Can it ensure a safe environment for people to come out and vote? Will it release results on time and will these results be credible?

Abas also happens to be the nephew of MILF chief peace negotiator Mohagher Iqbal. To convince people he is taking no side in the Bangsamoro debate, he has said he will not be voting during the plebiscite. 

Arnel dela Vega, WestMinCom chief

If terror groups will try to spoil the plebiscite with violence, it will be Dela Vega’s job to stop them. He leads the Philippine military’s Western Mindanao Command (WestMinCom), which has task forces in areas participating in the plebiscite like Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan, and Cotabato City. 

As a former commander in Sulu and the Army’s 6th Infantry Division, Dela Vega led the fight against the Abu Sayyaf Group and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters in Central Mindanao. He was also the first commander to send reinforcements when war broke out in Marawi City in May 2017.

The heightened security due to the plebiscite is compounded by the fact that Mindanao, including the ARMM, remains under martial law. With all this security, military commanders like Dela Vega have been given a lot of leeway to ensure a safe plebiscite.

Graciano Mijares, ARMM’s top cop

Police Chief Superintendent Graciano Mijares, ARMM’s police chief, is in charge of securing ARMM’s 2.1 million registered voters on plebiscite day. Peace and order will be critical in ensuring a good voter turnout which, in turn, makes for legitimate plebiscite results. Police will have to make sure no violence breaks out between the pros and antis, and no group succeeds in sabotaging the plebiscite.  

– Rappler.com

CLAIM: Ilocos Norte Governor Imee Marcos claimed on January 16 that she earned a degree from Princeton University.

Rappler asked her during a forum in Manila to clarify the matter after the senatorial aspirant first dodged the question in December 2018, when she was asked in a DZMM interview whether she finished her undergraduate degree at Princeton University.

"Oo naman, oo naman (Yes, of course)," said Marcos on January 16, adding that her degree was "religion and politics."

Marcos' biography on Facebook also described her as "one of the first female graduates from an Ivy League School – Princeton University, graduating with honors."

RATING: FALSE

The facts: Princeton deputy university spokesperson Michael Hotchkiss told Rappler via email that Marcos did not finish her degree.

"Our records do not show that Ms Marcos was awarded a degree," said Hotchkiss.

He did confirm, however, that Marcos attended Princeton, first during the Fall 1973 to Spring 1976 terms, then during the Fall 1977 to Spring 1979 terms.

Her major field was "Independent Concentration in Religion and Politics." Hotchkiss explained that "concentration" is Princeton's term for what is called a "major" or a student's primary area of study in other universities. But he said Marcos did not finish her concentration.

Hotchkiss was not able to provide other academic files of Marcos – like copies of her grades – as these are not allowed to be shared to the public because of a United States federal law, the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act of 1974.

But a column published on August 31, 1983, in Princeton's Town Topics newspaper said that Marcos "flunked out" of the university.

This column, titled "Dear Brooke: Here's The Lowdown On Coping With Your New Role As A Princeton Freshman," was addressed to model and actress Brooke Shields, who attended Princeton in 1983. The piece talked about what a Princeton freshman can expect during his or her first few days at the university.

The column ended with a reference to Marcos, which goes: "You might draw a lesson from the experience of Imee Marcos. She never did graduate; she flunked out. At Princeton, that is one thing that is still being taken very seriously." – with reports from Vernise Tantuco/Rappler.com

A post shared by a Facebook group with over 200,000 followers claims to show numerous Chinese fishing boats which it says are in Philippine waters due to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. A reverse image search found that the image was taken by the Reuters news agency in China 4 years before Duterte was elected president.

The post, which has been shared more than 200 times since it was published January 14, contains a photograph of multiple fishing boats flying the Chinese flag and says: “Look, lots and lots of Chinese fishing vessels are fishing inside our EEZ."

An EEZ is a zone of up to 200 nautical miles from the country’s coast, where it has sovereign rights over the resources.

“I’m sure even Indonesian President JOKO WIDODO is angry at Du30 for not defending our Exclusive Economic Zone!” the post says.

Du30 is a reference to Duterte.

“Is Du30 a coward President or a traitor President or both ??” the post says.

Here is a screenshot of the post:

A reverse image search of the photo traced the image of the boats back to a gallery of pictures from international news agency Reuters. The photo of boats is the 11th image in the gallery.

Here is a screenshot of the photo:

The caption says the boats were leaving Shenjiawan port in Zhoushan, a city in the Chinese province of Zhejiang.

The photo was taken on September 17, 2012, four years before Duterte became president in June 2016. Here is an AFP story about his swearing in.

Since becoming president, Duterte has pursued warmer ties with China, most notably by halting a standoff between Manila and Beijing over claims to the resource-rich South China Sea. Here is an AFP story on the changes. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – With government officials now using Twitter, there is more space to discuss issues that matter to their constituents. Public servants, however, have not used the platform effectively all the time. Some have even confronted netizens crudely. Others tweet too much.

What happens when public officials mistweet and overtweet? Here are recent incidents and resulting events.

1. Foreign Secretary Teodoro "Teddyboy" Locsin Jr (@teddyboylocsin)

After pronouncing on Twitter that a "previous outsourced passport maker took all the data" on passports, Foreign Secretary Teodoro "Teddyboy" Locsin Jr sparked a national debate on the platform and beyond. (READ: Ex-DFA contractor ‘took off’ with passport data, says Locsin)

Asked how the DFA could be sure that passport holders' personal information is protected, Locsin tweeted, "I don't know."

When news organizations picked up his tweet about the alleged data loss, Locsin took to Twitter to clarify who was behind the mess, saying the blame should be on the Arroyo and Aquino administrations.

Locsin also consistently blamed the "Yellows" for the alleged data loss. (READ: Locsin blames 'Yellows' for passport data loss)

The Philippine National Police (PNP) tagged the passport data loss as a "national security threat." A Senate probe was even sought.

The present contractor, APO Production Unit Inc (APUI), however said that "DFA officers have full access to data from old green passports, machine-readable passports, as well as the current e-passports." They added that equipment was turned over by the previous contractor, Oberthur, which Locsin said had "made off" with passport data.

Former foreign secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr also refuted the claim that there was data loss, saying that Locsin must have been "misinformed." (READ: Yasay refutes Locsin, says passport data not stolen)

While saying now that there is no runaway of data, Locsin insisted on Twitter that some of the data turned over to APO is "unusable."

As he continued to engage Twitter users regarding the alleged data loss, Locsin simultaneously tweeted about ending the birth certificate requirement for passport renewal.

He said, however, that the "probe on the passport mess continues" and that he would only "accept as conclusive" the findings of a Senate investigation.

2. Senator Sherwin "Win" Gatchalian (@stgatchalian)

Senator Sherwin "Win" Gatchalian met the start of 2018 with comments from a handful of disappointed netizens.

Their tweets came after the senator responded with "Ulol (moron)" to a tweet critical of him. He sent this with his personal account. 

Twitter users responded with comments calling Gatchalian a "trapo" (traditional politician) and describing his tweet as unbecoming of a senator. His response: "Gago ka!" (You're stupid!).

Asked why he used such language to respond to comments on Twitter, he said he got pissed. (READ: Gatchalian blames bashers for his meltdown on Twitter)

3. Senator Sonny Angara (@sonnyangara)

Netizens were not amused when Senator Sonny Angara referred to fellow senator Nancy Binay as "Chocolate" in a tweet during a Senate hearing on fake news. Former Communications Assistant Secretary Mocha Uson was present in the said hearing, which was held in October 2017.

Angara defended his tweet by saying that it was just banter between friends. 

However, Twitter users said that it was still unbecoming of a public official and that such banter could be done in private, not on a public platform like Twitter.

Social media use for government

The Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) released in early 2018 a draft policy on how government officials and employees should behave on social media.

In the draft administrative order (AO), the DICT blacklists the following, among others: "malicious content that aims to discredit an entity [or] office or a government representative without basis" and "unrelated information, jokes, or promotions that are personal and not of value to the agency."

The draft AO, however, does not compel Congress to follow the rules. But it does state that the order shall apply to national government agencies.

The draft does not mention rules on personal accounts. – Rappler.com