MANILA, Philippines – Still undecided on what partylist to vote for on May 9?

A total of 115 groups are running in this year’s party-list elections. But voters will have to choose only one of them in the ballots.

In principle, party-list representation in the House of Representatives aims to include members of marginalized and under-represented sectors in the legislative process to draft laws that will uplift their welfare. And choosing a party-list group means choosing what sector a voter would like to be represented in Congress.

Here's something that might help: below is a table of the 115 party-list groups, clustered per sector which they claim to represent in Congress.

Rappler based this classification on clues provided in the groups' full names, or on the advocacies indicated in their official website, and social media pages.

Based on this classification, those advocating for OFW and laborer rights dominate the party-list elections, with 19 groups. There are 12 groups that are for farmers and fishermen, and 9 groups for teachers and education.

Rappler classified 10 groups under multi-sectoral because of the multiple sectors they are promoting.

Nominees

Each group has at least 5 nominees, with a total of 673 nominees registered with the Commission on Elections (Comelec). However, only 59 seats are allotted to party-list representatives in the next Congress.

See how the party-list seats were allocated in the 2013 elections.

The party-list nominees for the 2016 polls are a mixed bag – reelectionists, political families, former congressmen and government officials, and legitimate members of marginalized sectors.

Over the years, while there have been nominees and congressmen from these sectors, some individuals and groups – mostly from political dynasties – have treated the partylist as a "shortcut" to Congress. Therefore it's also important to know who the nominees of these groups are. (READ: 2016 party-list nominees: Taking a 'shortcut' to Congress?)

Congress records

Out of the 115 party-list groups, 43 of them won in the 2013 elections and are seeking another 3 years under the next administration. Are they worth reelecting?

Rappler checked the track record of these groups by looking at documents – House bills and resolutions – in which their representatives are named main authors. This is to see if these groups indeed "represented" and stayed true to the sector or advocacies they promised.

Based on the table above, Magdalo party-list representative Gary Alejano authored the most number of related bills and resolutions, with 20 bills and 16 resolutions.

There are at least 6 representatives who were not named main author of any bill or resolution that has to do with the sectors they represent, but were named co-author of sector-related bills and resolution:

• Patricio Antonio of Agbiag (co-authored 4 sector-related bills)
• Conrado Estrella III of Abono (co-authored 2 sector-related bills)
• Roberto Mascariña of Ating Koop (nothing, as he was allowed to sit in Congress only on March 2016)
• Francisco Emmanuel Ortega III of Abono (co-authored 2 sector-related bills)
• Joseph Stephen Paduano of Abang Lingkod (co-authored 9 sector-related bills)
• Jose Panganiban Jr of Anac-IP (co-authored 30 sector-related bills and 7 sector-related resolutions)

Rappler also checked other available documents such as their attendance record and their Statements of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALNs).

In the 2014 record attendance in the Lower House, Amin party-list representative Sitti Djalia Turabin-Hataman incurred the most number of absences among the incumbent party-list representatives. She had 17 absences – 16 due to constituency work, and 1 without notice of absence.

Fourteen had no absences in Congress:

• Gary Alejano of Magdalo
• Jose Atienza Jr. of Buhay
• Christopher Co of Ako Bicol
• Cinchona Cruz-Gonzales of Cibac
• Conrado Estrella III of Abono
• Agapito Guanlao of Butil
• Catalina 'Baby' Leonen-Pizzaro of ABS
• Victoria Isabel Noel of An Waray
• Joseph Stephen Paduano of Abang Lingkod
• Mariano Piamonte Jr of A Teacher
• Terry Ridon of Kabataan
• Michael Angelo Rivera of 1CARE
• Erlinda Santiago of 1SAGIP
• Lorna Velasco of AMA

Meanwhile, in the SALN records, majority of the party-list representatives are among the "poorest in Congress". Three of them even registered a net worth of less than a million: Fernando Hicap of Anakpawis, Abigail Faye Ferriol-Pascual of Kalinga, and Jonathan dela Cruz of Abakada.

The richest among the party-list representatives is Diwa's Emmeline Aglipay, who declared a net worth of P689 million in a joint SALN filed with husband and fellow member of Congress Mark Villar. The couple got married in late 2014. (READ: 224 members of Congress richer in 2014)

Will the public still see the same party-list groups in the next Congress? – with research from interns Arleth Myka Cledera, Kathleen Abenales, and Noa Carrascoso/Rappler.com

There were only 3 days left to go before Election Day but in some ways, May 6, 2016 felt like a throwback to mid-2015. 

Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Manuel Roxas II grabbed headlines on Friday, May 6, when, in a hastily called press conference, he invited presidential rival Senator Grace Poe to “talk” for “unity, our country, and our future.” 

It was a call prompted by “uncertainty and the specter of a dictatorship are looming over our country once again.” Roxas was referring to the surging popularity of Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, who leads presidential preference polls held less than a week before the elections. 

Poe, who was campaigning in Laguna when Roxas made the public invite, said talk was fine but “if they want to talk about my withdrawal, I will not back down.” 

It was reminiscent of events in August 2015, back when Roxas was still without a running mate and Poe was still hush-hush about her plans to run for president. In a television interview then, Roxas revealed he had already asked Poe to be his running mate – an invite Poe said should have been made in private. 

Shortly after Roxas’ announcement last Friday, news broke that LP chairman President Benigno Aquino III had called on other presidential candidates to unite, in hopes of defeating a Duterte presidency. 

On social media, the response to Roxas’ call and Poe’s response was a mixed bag. Roxas’ supporters accused Poe of being selfish and unwilling to put the country before her own plans. Poe’s supporters, meanwhile, cried foul over the “trap” that Roxas and his campaign had set for Poe. 

The debate continues to rage online as the nation waits to vote on Monday. 

Why make it public?

Notice how public Roxas’ appeal to Poe was. As one source from the Aquino camp put it, these things are usually crafted in secret and usually through emissaries. 

Aquino apparently did this.

Both he and Poe confirmed that invitations were sent out for a “dialogue.” The neophyte senator, who used to lead presidential preference surveys, was supposedly open but non-committal to the invite, according to a source privy to the exchange.

But things turned bleaker last Thursday, May 5, when Poe read about Roxas’ chance interview with reporters in Legazpi City. Citing their survey numbers and supposed momentum, Roxas said: “Now more than ever, nagpapakita na ito ang laban sa pagitan ng Duterte-Marcos at sa Roxas-Robredo (It’s clear that the battle is now between Duterte-Marcos and Roxas-Robredo).” (READ: It's Roxas-Robredo vs Duterte-Marcos, says LP standard-bearer)

This apparently piqued Poe, who's running second to Duterte along with Roxas in preference polls, according to the same source. Thus her curt reply to Roxas.

Failed meetings

Friday's events were such a throwback.

After all, as early as 2015, Aquino attempted to forge an alliance between Poe (who then had an overwhelming lead in surveys) and Roxas, his 2010 running mate and long-assumed 2016 standard-bearer of the ruling party. 

Several meetings were held in Malacañang. There was one among Roxas, Poe, and Poe’s husband. There was another that included Poe’s eventual running mate Senator Francis Escudero. And then there was another that even included Budget Secretary and former LP president Florencio "Butch" Abad. 

Those meetings, we all know now, failed. And that's why the outgoing president is back to square one on the eve of the May 9 elections. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Over 5.4 million Filipinos are registered to choose the next leaders of the Philippines on Monday, May 9.

But based on voter turnout in the past elections, one cannot expect all 54,363,329 to actually go to their respective precincts and vote.

While the number of registered voters has been increasing in recent years, voter turnout on the other hand has been fluctuating. The average voter turnout of the past 9 national elections stands at 75.79%. 

Between 1992 and 2013, the highest voter turnout was during the 1998 presidential elections with 86.1%, equivalent to 29,474,309 out of 34,117,056 Filipinos. In that election, Joseph Estrada won as president. The second highest was seen in 2004 with 76.99%, an election won by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Philippines and the world

How does one of Southeast Asia's oldest democracies fare in terms of voter turnout compared to other countries?

In Asia, the Philippines ranks 5th highest among 16 countries that conducted their elections in 2013. 

With 77.19%, the country falls behind Maldives (91.43%), Turkmenistan (91.33%), Tajikistan (90.16%), and Malaysia (84.84%). 

Meanwhile, data from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) show that the Philippines' 2013 figure ranks 50th among 199 countries' latest voter turnouts in the past decade. 

It even edged out by a mile the United States which only registered 36.4% in 2014. 

Note: Click on a country to see its latest voter turnout rate and other election-related information.

The Philippines also belongs to the top 10 Asian countries with the most number of registered voters.

Can vote-rich provinces deliver?

Throughout the campaign period, candidates have been going around several areas to woo voters. But with so little time to go around, some provinces are prioritized when it comes to sorties or visits. 

These places are often the provinces with voters enough to help a candidate come May 9. 

According to Commission on Elections data, the combined total number of voters of the top 10 most vote-rich provinces is 16,889,009 – 31.07% of the entire Philippine electorate. The total is even bigger than the combined voters of island groups Visayas and Mindanao.

What is important now, however, is that all of the almost 17 million voters go out and cast their vote on May 9. But is that possible?

Based on the figures in the past 5 elections in these provinces, it might be a far-fetched dream to hit 100%. The voter turnout in these areas fluctuates. 

Among the 10 provinces, Pangasinan seems to consistently have a high voter turnout. Its average between the 2001 and 2013 elections is pegged at 80.80%. Rizal registered the lowest average of 67.05%. 

However, a high voter turnout might reflect an irregularity. Despite being a "good thing" when precincts register a commendable figure, some turnout rates may raise the possibility of cheating. (READ: Signs of cheating? Unusually high voter turnouts in 2013, 2010)

Record-breaking?

It's a few days before all Filipino voters are able to shade the circle beside their candidates of choice. But for some, it's a period of discernment whether or not they will vote at all.

Overseas absentee voters (OAV), however, already had a record-breaking turnout less than a month into their voting period from April 9 to May 9. 

As of April 28, the Comelec reported that more than 200,000 overseas Filipinos already cast their votes in their respective posts across the world. This figure is already way above the past elections' turnout: 118,823 in 2013; 153,323 in 2010; and 81,732 in 2007. (READ: What you need to know about overseas absentee voters)

We'll know soon if the drastic improvement among OAVs will contribute to a higher voter turnout among all Filipino voters. – Rappler.com

As the campaigns wrap up, the possibility stares at us that the presidential and vice presidential candidates who started out trailing their rivals might just get elected. (Check out Rappler's Presidential Poll Monitor and Vice Presidential Poll Monitor.)

It's an interesting prospect – Rodrigo Duterte as president and Leni Robredo as vice president – not only because they come from rival camps; their approach and perspective on certain matters differ quite sharply.

Duterte can be brash; Robredo is seemly. Duterte brags about resorting to extra-legal approaches; Robredo has a broader perspective on rights. Even in her most diplomatic attempt, the congresswoman from Naga City failed to downplay the possible difficulty of serving with a president like the mayor of Davao City. 

That reminded me: 14 years ago I asked Leni's husband, then Naga City Mayor Jesse Robredo, what he thought of Duterte's approach to fighting crime in Davao City. 

In 2002, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo appointed Duterte as her adviser on peace and order. This was after Time magazine in July that year profiled Duterte as judge, jury, and executioner, who brought relative calm to a once chaotic city.

I wrote that Duterte's appointment was both good and bad: "Good, because it acknowledges the role of local government units in making the national government's anti-crime campaign succeed, or appear like it is succeeding. Bad, because it tends to overshadow the anti-crime efforts of other communities— efforts that are certainly lawful and can be viable beyond the incumbency of a superman mayor."

Naga was one of the cities at the time that had curbed crime without the use of extra-legal means. Its barangay-based initiatives involved citizens and allowed the local police to focus on bigger concerns. It aimed for prevention rather than solution. 

Here's the full text of the Naga part of my story, "Move Over, Duterte," published in Newsbreak in September 2002:

"Our strategy is to appeal to the people's [sense of] civic duty, and not to strike fear [in them]," says Naga City Mayor Jesse Robredo.

Robredo's Naga is the only city other than Duterte's Davao that has been consistently cited by the National Police Commission since the agency began its annual search for outstanding local peace and order councils (POCs) in 1995. The POC is a multisectoral body that the Code requires to be established in every region, province, city, and municipality. It plans and recommends measures to improve peace and order in the locality, and monitors the anti-crime and anti-insurgency activities of civilian volunteer organizations.

Since the early 1990s, the city government of Naga has made peace and order a shared responsibility between residents, barangay officials, and the local police. The residents help gather information on suspected criminals or report situations that could possibly lead to crimes. The barangay officials and the tanods, trained in basic police work, religiously do the neighborhood watch or ronda. The police are called in to make arrests when needed. The business community has been tapped, too, to donate the equipment and gadgets neeeded for anti-crime work.

For faster decision-making and results, police operations have been decentralized in Naga. Instead of having to consult the city police chief on practically everything, policemen are made accountable to the substation chief in their respective areas. Robredo says the local police has also been relieved of responsibilities that civilian employees can do, such as directing traffic, so policemen can concentrate on anti-crime work.

Fourteen years ago, Duterte's style had already become increasingly attractive to residents from outside Davao City, even if that style supposedly included abducting and shooting known rapists and drug dealers himself.

He has pretty much admitted those acts in his campaign speeches this 2016, and some 13 million across the country intend to vote for him as president. – Rappler.com 

MANILA, Philippines – In the 2007 elections, results for the Senate race from the province of Maguindanao generated a huge controversy after the province gave the administration’s Team Unity (TU) bets a whopping 12-0 sweep.

The administration win that year was even more remarkable because not a single vote from 20 of the 22 municipalities in the province went to the Genuine Opposition (GO).

Most controversial of all was then Ilocos Sur Governor Luis Singson ranking first in the province, on May 25, 2007 – despite not having roots there. 

The Maguindanao provincial count also significantly digressed from the final tally where Singson ranked 25th nationwide. (READ: Guns, Fealty, and Money)

There were other notable things about the Maguindanao vote that year: a turnout of at least 90% for all of the 22 municipalities – staggeringly high compared to the rest of the country – and the loss of critical election paraphernalia attesting to the results which caused the national canvass for senators to drag beyond the end of May 2010. (READ: Bedol Collected Poll Documents Before ‘Losing’ Them)

“They did it with impunity,” then election lawyer for the opposition Leila de Lima told me in an interview weeks after the elections. 

Maguindanao province at the time was virtually under the control of then governor Andal Ampatuan Sr who considered himself the vassal of whoever was in Malacañang. A friend of the Ampatuan family told me when I visited the province weeks after the elections, “Whatever the President wants, he will follow." For that election, the source noted, "12-0 is what Ma’am (then President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo) wants.” 

Automation 

The 2007 elections were the last manual elections the country had. In 2010, Philippine elections (both national and local) were finally automated.

Automation ushered in hopes of a cleaner and faster process. Instead of teachers painstakingly counting and recording each vote on paper returns until the wee hours in polling precincts, machines scanned ballots and transmitted the results in real time. (READ: How does the PH automated election system work?) 

To illustrate, as of 9:12 pm of Tuesday, May 11, 2010 – a day after the polls – candidate Benigno Aquino III already exhibited a clear lead against rivals with 13,165,343 votes, against second placer Joseph Estrada, who had 8,425,937 votes.

As far as quick counts were concerned, and in comparison to how long it took to get the 12th senator proclaimed in 2007, that was really quick.

But the new system also introduced fresh concerns.

Were the machines counting the votes properly or were they the ones actually electing the country's new leaders?

Precincts with uber-high turnout rates, failed transmission

Rappler analyzed the election data and revealed indicators of either potential cheating or machines somehow mis-counting the votes. We uncovered precincts which had abnormally high voting rates and whose results significantly digressed from national patterns.

• Most 100% turnout in ARMM, Cebu precincts
• Enrile, Zubiri win in precincts with 100% turnout
• Over-votes in past elections due to vote counting machine glitches?

We also reported about areas where transmission got worse in 2013.

That provinces that failed to transmit somehow coincided with areas that figured significantly in cheating incidents in the previous elections made us wonder if old problems persist. 

But speculations aside, could the data give conclusive proof of cheating? Recent studies of electoral data in various countries indicate that this is possible. 

Election health check

In 2012, a group of researchers from the Santa Fe Institute, a private, not-for-profit, independent research and education center in Santa Fe, New Mexico in the US, published a study which suggested that some kinds of election fraud leave a trace in the voting data.

Entitled, "Statistical Detection of Election Irregularities," the Santa Fe Institute study analyzed voting patterns in various countries.

Among other things, the Sante Fe team compared voter turnout against percentage of votes for the winning party. Simplified, the study essentially said that the more precincts there are that exhibit high voter turnout and high level of preference for the winner,  the higher the possibility of fraud.  

The study described this as the "statistical fingerprints of election thieves." 

Maguindanao and Lanao 

We decided to apply the same analysis to precinct-level election results data for the vice presidency in 2010. 

It came as no surprise that the most distinctive graph that came out was that of Maguindanao province, which had been earlier identified as problematic. (See graph below.) Note that colors in the graph indicate density of precincts plotted within a particular area. The lighter the color the more precincts there are in that space. 

To us, it was very clear. That so many precincts in Maguindanao had almost complete attendance on election day and that a significant number of those voters also voted for the same person is anomalous. It indicates a high probability of cheating in the area.

Slightly similar to Maguindanao was the contour graph generated for Lanao del Sur, which was also described as a hotbed of cheating in the past.

The findings from the graphs conform with what we have seen of elections in Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur in previous elections.

For instance, in the 2009 ARMM special elections, international observers from the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) saw people filling up multiple ballots in some precincts in Maguindanao. (READ: the ANFREL report on the 2009 ARMM elections)

I personally joined one of the ANFREL teams when they spot checked different polling centers and precincts in Maguindanao in August 2009. We saw election officers allowing kids to vote and truckloads of voters being brought to polling centers. 

We wondered: did these happen again in 2010 and 2013?

Compared to Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao, the maps for key metropolitan areas indicated a relatively healthy distribution of precincts by votes vs turnouts.

Clicking on the icons on the map below activates a sidebar on the left-hand side of the map that displays the graph for each province. Click on the graph to view the pop-up window that displays the larger image of the graph.

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#PHVoteWatch: Eyes on each precinct, polling place

The above findings make it doubly important for the Comelec to make sure that all precinct level results are received by the Transparency Server and that all possible ways to audit the data are made possible.

It also makes it even more important for watchdog groups to monitor and analyze the results closely and compare the data with what is actually happening in the precincts and polling places.

Did people really troop to the polling precincts en masse in the areas with very high turnout rates or were golden hands voting in their behalf? 

We need to be concerned when the machines don’t transmit to the Transparency Server, which receives results directly from the precincts via the vote counting machines.

We need to be concerned about differences between the results transmitted by the vote counting machines and the results of the random manual count.

We need to make sure that the audit is really random and that precincts audited are a representative sample. This way we can better assess how these will affect the actual outcome of elections.

Automation does not mean you only need to watch the system and check the code. On the contrary, precinct level poll watching remains absolutely necessary in an automated election. 

Having eyes on the ground is important to validate the data that the machines will churn out during the canvassing. (READ: Poll watchdogs prepare for final stretch of 2016 elections)

This is what we are trying to do in partnering with watchdog groups for #PHVoteWatch. For this initiative, Rappler partners with the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV), the National Citizens' Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel), the Legal Network for Truthful Elections (Lente) and other civil society groups. (READ: #PHVoteWatch: Report vote buying, other election wrongdoing)

Automation may not protect this country from cheating.

The good news, however, is that data make these issues more visible and transparent to those willing to look, analyze, and quickly compare what the system says against what actually happens on the ground. – with Russell Shepherd, Wayne Manuel and Michael Bueza/Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Five provinces in the Philippines have consistently been prone to election-related violence and politically motivated incidents in the last 4 election years, records of the Philippine National Police (PNP) show.

The provinces of Abra and Nueva Ecija in Luzon, Masbate in the Visayas, and Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur in Mindanao have been included in the PNP watchlist since the 2007 elections.

For the 2016 elections, the PNP named 9 provinces that are considered "high-risk" areas for possible violence in this year's election

• Abra
• Pangasinan
• Lanao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur
• Masbate
• Negros Oriental
• Nueva Ecija
• Maguindanao
• Western Samar

A total of 23 provinces have been included in the police watchlist in the past 4 elections. Below is a map that illustrates where these provinces are and the years they were declared as police hot spots.

Five of the 6 provinces that make up the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) were repeatedly placed in the watchlist – Basilan, Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, and Sulu. Only Tawi-Tawi has been spared the list since 2007.

All the provinces in the Ilocos region – Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, and La Union – have been placed in the police watchlist. Pangasinan appeared twice in 4 election years.

Have you noticed any incidents of election-related violence in these areas? Or do you have any election-related complaints in these areas? Tell us about it in our #PHVoteWatch map.– Renz Paolo Regis/Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Mindanaoan Mayor Rodrigo Duterte pulled a surprise when he captured most of the votes in Metro Manila which, in the last Standard poll, went for presidential contender Grace Poe.

In that survey, Duterte emerged number 1 nationwide. The Standard poll (for April 27 to May 1), however, showed Duterte with only 19% in the National Capital Region (NCR), behind Poe with 32%.

Metro Manila is typically anti-administration and more vocal about shortcomings of the national government. Administration standard-bearer Manuel "Mar" Roxas ranked 4th in both the Standard and Pulse Asia polls.

Surveys conducted before the elections consistently showed a preference for either Poe or Binay. The trend was broken only in March 2016 when Duterte first tied Poe, based on a Pulse Asia survey.

Based on unofficial results from the Commission on Elections-GMA7 mirror server as of Tuesday morning, May 10, Duterte leads in 15 cities and one municipality of the National Capital Region.

He lost only in Makati City, bailiwick of Vice President Jejomar Binay. Areas in the National Capital Region had a transmission rate of between 90% and 100% as of Tuesday morning, based on data from the mirror server.

Duterte obtained the highest lead in Taguig City, where he got 60.5% of the total votes. Taguig City is the hometown of Duterte's runningmate, Alan Peter Cayetano, who was also former councilor, vice mayor, and representative of the city.

Poe landed 2nd with a far 14.5% of votes transmitted.

Duterte enjoys a big lead in all areas in Metro Manila, only except in Navotas City where he faced a very tight race with Binay. Duterte got 35.8% of the transmitted votes while Binay got 34.4%.

Navotas City is the hometown of United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) president and Binay spokesperson Tobias Tiangco, who secured reelection as representative of the city in this year's elections.

In other areas of Metro Manila where Duterte won, he obtained more than 40% of the votes.

It is only in Makati City where Duterte dropped to 2nd place, ranking next to Binay, the city's former mayor. Binay got 43% of the transmitted votes, while Duterte got only 28.8%.

Binay maintains a strong hold on the city. In this year's elections, his daughter Abigail leads in the mayoral race, while her husband Luis Jose Angel Campos Jr leads in the congressional race.

Meanwhile, Poe landed second in almost all NCR areas, except for the cities of Makati (where she landed 4th), Navotas (where she finished 3rd), and Pasay (where she was 3rd).

Santiago landed 5th in all Metro Manila areas, except in Marikina City where she placed 4th with 8.7%. Binay placed 5th with 6.5%.

In the last survey released by Pulse Asia (for April 26 to 29), Duterte was the leading choice in NCR with 40%, followed by Poe with 25%. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – While candidates Leni Robredo and Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr are still neck and neck in the vice presidential race based on the unofficial tally of national votes, it’s a different story in Metro Manila where the latter enjoys a huge lead.

Based on unofficial results from the Commission on Elections-GMA7 mirror server as of 6:55 pm of Wednesday, May 11, Marcos leads in the National Capital Region (NCR) with 2.18 million votes, and Robredo comes second with 1.36 million votes.

Marcos dominates in 15 cities and one municipality in Metro Manila – except in Taguig City, the bailiwick of candidate Alan Peter Cayetano.

And while the total number of votes for the two are just close to each other, there’s a wide gap between their votes in most areas in the National Capital Region (NCR).

Marcos’ lead in NCR became consistent with the last surveys conducted by both Pulse Asia and The Standard, where he led in the region – 38% and 42%, respectively. Robredo came second in the Pulse Asia survey with 24%, while Senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero was second in the Standard survey with 23%.

But while Marcos shares the same lead in NCR with presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte, their fates are different, based on the unofficial tally of total votes nationwide.

Huge lead

Marcos enjoys the widest lead over Robredo in the cities of Manila and Navotas, where the difference between their percentages of votes are around 30% and 28%, respectively.

In Manila (results in chart above), Marcos’ candidacy was backed by now reelected Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, who announced he was supporting the candidacies of Marcos and presidential candidate Grace Poe. His other partner Guia Gomez, who, based on unofficial results, won in San Juan City by a hairline, endorsed administration candidate Manuel "Mar" Roxas.

Meanwhile, in Navotas (results in chart above), Marcos’ 2010 senatorial candidacy was endorsed by then mayor and now reelected representative Tobias Tiangco. Tiangco’s wife Michelle is Marcos’ cousin.

Marcos got the highest percentage of votes in Pasay City (see below), with 50.7%. Robredo got only 26.9% in the city.

Robredo didn’t do well in the city despite the huge success of the Liberal Party’s (LP) Pasay City bets – Antonino Calixto for mayor, Noel del Rosario for vice mayor, and Imelda Calixto-Rubiano for representative.

Cayetano factor

Votes for Alan Peter Cayetano, currently in 4th place in the unofficial tally of votes, may have contributed to the gap between the votes for the two leading candidates.

In Taguig City (results in chart below), Cayetano ranked first with 49.6% of votes, followed by Marcos with 29.9%, and Robredo with 13.8%.

Cayetano was former councilor, vice mayor, and representative in this city. His wife Laarni was reelected mayor – the lone candidate for the position, while his sister Pia secured the congressional seat vacated by their brother Lino.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Pateros (results in chart below), Marcos ranked first with 35.4%, followed by Cayetano with 28.4%, and Robredo with 23.6%.

Pateros is the only area in Metro Manila where Robredo dropped to 3rd place.

No LP candidate ran in Taguig City, where most candidates are from NPC. As for Pateros, only one is from LP – Arnel Cerafica for representatives – and the rest are either independent or from NPC.

Endorsed by local officials

In most cities – Pasig, Las Piñas, and San Juan, for example – Marcos got more than 40% of votes, while Robredo only got more than 20-30% of votes. These are areas where, just like in Manila and Navotas City, local officials were all out for Marcos' candidacy.

In Pasig City (results in chart above), the ruling Eusebio clan expressed support for Marcos’ vice presidential bid.

In Las Piñas City (see above), Mayor Vergel Aguilar and Representative Mark Villar both gave their “silent endorsement” to Marcos.

In San Juan City (results in chart above), now reelectionist mayor Guia Gomez announced she was for the vice presidency of Marcos.

But still, all these didn't stop Robredo from dislodging Marcos from the top in the vice presidential race. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – What's the probability of having a full turnout in voting precincts? Very improbable, experts say, because this defies the national average which hit about 75% in 2010 and 84% this year. But on May 9, 2016, 116 polling precincts from 18 provinces still posted 100% voter turnout rates.

This is based on the partial and unofficial results from the Commission on Elections transparency server, as of 10:50 am Thursday, May 12.

All in all, 36,236 registered voters turned up in precincts that reported a 100% turnout. Of this total, Liberal Party standard-bearer Mar Roxas won with 16,381 votes followed by Senator Grace Poe with some 10,836 votes.

Former Davao City Mayor and presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte won only 1,293 of the votes in these full turnout precincts.

But nationwide, 95.72% of precincts have reported a comfortable lead for Duterte who garnered 15.89 million votes as of 9:56 am, Thursday, May 12.

While it seems that a 100% turnout in certain precincts shows an increased diligence in fulfilling civic duties, experts view it with suspicion, a possible indicator of poll cheating.

The table below shows the list of precincts that achieved a 100% voter turnout with votes garnered for each presidential candidate. Those highlighted in orange are the winning votes.

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Precincts

During the 2010 elections that elected President Benigno Aquino III, clustered precincts with a 100% turnout numbered 43 in at least 7 provinces: Kalinga, Samar, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi. The last 4 provinces belong to the Autonomous Region in Muslimn Mindanao (ARMM).

In addition to the 7 provinces in 2010, Apayao, Basilan, Cebu, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Zamboanga del Sur also delivered a full turnout in the 2013 elections. That same year, Samar was off the list. The 25,649 voters registered in at least 70 precincts in 12 provinces trooped to the polls.

For this year's election, not all voters from Apayao, Sultan Kudarat, and Zamboanga del Sur showed up in their precincts as in the last senatorial elections. The provinces of Leyte, Agusan del Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, Bohol and Aurora are among those that reported a 100% voter turnout.

Compared to 2013, precincts that reported a 100% voter turnout are 40% more this year. (READ: Signs of cheating? Unusually high voter turnouts in 2010, 2013)

Nationwide, voter turnout was 74.99% in 2010 and 77.31% in 2013.

Surprising returns in 2016

Of the 116 precincts that delivered a 100% voter turnout, Roxas won in 65 precincts while Poe captured 40 of them.

Surprisingly, Duterte won in only one of the precincts in Lanao del Norte that posted a complete turnout. He garnered all 326 votes in that polling precinct, while Poe got the majority of votes in other precincts. (See table above to view breakdown of votes per candidate in polling precincts) 

In ARMM, Roxas won in the Basilan, Lanao del Sur, and Tawi-Tawi precincts that reported a full turnout. In Maguindanao and Sulu, Poe votes prevailed among the full turnout precincts.

The results are suprising as the April 27 to May 1 Standard Poll before the May 9 polls showed a glaring voter preference for Duterte. It surged from 35% to 47%. Preference for Roxas was at 15% compared to Poe's 13%.

While President Aquino won in ARMM in 2010, Roxas did not when he ran for vice president in the same year. It was Vice President Jejomar Binay who captured the vote of the region at the time.

This year's turnout, at least in those areas where all registered voters participated, shows that the tables have turned. (READ: Will voting trends in ARMM hold in 2016?)

In Cebu, 3 precincts hit complete turnouts. Two were won by Binay while the other one was for Roxas.

Late into the campaign, support for Binay and his party United Nationalist Alliance was dropped by influential local party 1-Cebu due to "unappreciated loyalty." 1-Cebu eventually showed support for Duterte.

During the 2010 elections, Roxas won by a landslide in vote-rich Cebu, garnering 814,397 votes.

For this year, in Ifugao, one precinct posted a 100% voter turnout but had only 4 registered voters. Based on the data, 3 voted for Poe while the other one voted for Duterte. 

Do you know of other precincts that defied the national average and reported a 100% voter turnout? – with research by Wayne Manuel/Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Rodrigo Duterte, presumptive president and expected winner of the 2016 elections, has given so much color to the Philippine presidential race.

The Davao City mayor is such a character that he made many sit at the edge of their seats each time he spoke. He made headlines in both local and international media.

The popularity of the tough-talking Duterte cuts across socio-economic classes. The overwhelming support became evident on election day as Duterte's lead became insurmountable.

The battle cry of Duterte’s supporters throughout the campaign period, "#ChangeIsComing" may or may not come true. His anticipated presidency sets many firsts in the history of Philippine presidents.

First to come directly from a local post

Rodrigo Duterte will be the first president to take a huge leap across government positions. From being a local chief executive of Davao City for 21 years, he is set to be the 16^th president of the Philippines. Former president Joseph Estrada was first mayor of San Juan before he became senator, vice president, and then president. 

Duterte was Davao City mayor for 3 three-term periods – from 1988 to 1998, 2001 to 2010, and 2013 to 2016, before jumping to the presidency.

When term limits hindered his seeking the mayoral post, Duterte served as the city’s 1^st district representative from 1998 to 2001. Afterwards, he became vice mayor from 2010 to 2013 to his daughter, Sara Duterte.

First from Mindanao

Duterte will become the first president from Mindanao in a roster of 3 Visayans and 12 Luzon-bred presidents.

Although born in Maasin, Leyte, Duterte grew up in the Mindanao province of Davao. His father, Vicente Duterte, served as Davao provincial governor.

It was in Davao where he made his mark in the local political arena after being appointed officer-in-charge vice mayor after the 1986 People Power Revolution. Prior to entering politics, he worked as city prosecutor.

Duterte’s roots in Mindanao translated to a solid support base throughout his candidacy. In various pre-election surveys, he was the overwhelming top choice of Mindanao residents. Despite Mindanao being a known stronghold of the ruling Liberal Party (LP), many local officials have jumped ship to Duterte’s camp.

In April 2016, in fact, he declared that he is the “Moro people’s president.”

First to have filed his certificate of candidacy after the official period

Days before the period of filing of candidacy, the other aspiring presidential candidates were already known. It was a different case with Duterte, the reluctant candidate.

The Davao city mayor left supporters and the media – practically the whole Philippines – guessing on whether or not we would run. 

The period of filing of certificates of candidacy (COC) ended without Duterte in sight. Instead, on October 15, his aide filed his COC for the Davao City mayor.

More than a month later on November 27, Duterte withdrew his candidacy for mayor and had his representative file his COC for president under PDP-Laban. He substituted for Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption (VACC) chairperson Martin Diño. Substitution is allowed under Comelec rules.

First self-declared socialist president

Duterte has been tagged as a communist, considering his connections – and sometimes friendship – with people from the New People’s Army (NPA) and Communist Party of the Philippines-National Democratic Front (CPP-NDF) founder Jose Maria Sison.

The Davao City mayor, during previous mayoral elections, put left-leaning candidates in his city council slate and allowed a hero's burial and funeral march for NPA leader Leonardo Pitao or Kumander Parago. He also gave money to an NPA camp in the aftermath of Typhoon Pablo in 2012. (READ: 22 things to know about ‘Duterte Harry’)

As part of his platform on peace and order, Duterte even said he will “not kill NPA members.”

During his miting de avance on May 7, he said he will “become the Left-leaning president” even as he described himself as “left-of-center or socialist.”

First lawyer-president since Ferdinand Marcos

Despite his stance against crime and perceived circumventions of the law, Duterte’s supporters argue he is a lawyer so he knows what he’s doing.

Once sworn into office come June, Duterte will be the first lawyer-president since Ferdinand Marcos.

A graduate of San Beda Law, he joins the roster of 8 Philippine presidents: Manuel Quezon, Manuel Roxas, Jose P. Laurel, Carlos P. Garcia, Sergio Osmeña, Elpidio Quirino, and Ferdinand Marcos.

First with a pending plunder case

Aside from changing his usual routines once he becomes president, Duterte has to worry about a plunder case hanging over his head.

Weeks prior to the May 9 polls, vice presidential hopeful Antonio Trillanes IV accused him of having transactions in one bank account amounting to P2.4 billion. The alleged amount of transactions did not match the Davao City mayor’s Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALN).

On May 5, or 4 days before d-day, Trillanes filed a plunder complaint against Duterte before the Office of the Ombudsman. The senator alleged that the billions stored in the bank accounts of Duterte were sourced from salaries of ghost employees. (READ: Trillanes files plunder complaint vs Duterte)

Former president Estrada is the highest ranking public official charged with and convicted for plunder. He, however, was no longer president when the plunder case was filed against him in 2001. (READ: Plunder cases: Highs and lows)

First annulled president

Duterte was married to Elizabeth Zimmerman – the mother of his children Sara, Paolo, and Sebastian Duterte – for 27 years. In 1998, Zimmerman filed for annulment with the Regional Trial Court in Pasig and got approval two years later in 2000. (READ: ‘Philandering’ Rodrigo Duterte cause of marriage annulment)

Zimmerman, who is suffering from stage 3 breast cancer, remains a friend to Duterte. She even helped out in his campaign as part of the “Byaheng DU30” caravan with daughter Sara, while Duterte constantly checks on her health.

Despite being a self-confessed ladies’ man, Duterte still lives with common-law wife Cieleto “Honeylet” Avanceña with whom he has a daughter, 11-year-old Veronica.

First septuagenarian president

At 71 years old, Duterte is set to be the oldest – and the first septuagenarian – president of the Philippines. Before him, Osmeña was the oldest at 66 years old when he became president in 1944.

Quite unpredictable, Duterte may yet show more firsts during his term. – Rappler.com

As the canvassing of votes for the 2016 senatorial and party-list elections at the Philippine International Convention Center (PICC) entered its 3rd day on Thursday, May 12, reporters and poll observers sought one particular document: a partial, official canvass of votes. 

An observer for a party-list group even formalized the request for such running tally before the Comelec on the canvassing floor.

This would help them keep track of the votes garnered by candidates so far, based on the Certificates of Canvass (COCs) received by the Commission on Elections (Comelec), sitting as the National Board of Canvassers.

COCs started arriving at the PICC a day after the polls: 41 on May 10, then 27 on May 11, and some more on Thursday. Observers and the media were allowed to purchase copies of the COCs after they were audited and canvassed. COCs cost P2 per page.

But when the 3rd day of canvassing ended at around 8:30 pm, there was still no partial, official count.

This was not the case in the 2013 polls, when the Comelec issued canvass reports from time to time, to update all observers on the number of COCs and votes canvassed so far for the Senate and party-list elections. 

The COCs contain all election returns (ER) electronically transmitted by all vote-counting machines (VCM) through a ladderized route: from the VCMs to the city/municipal canvassing server to the provincial server and finally to the national canvassing server. (READ: How does the PH automated election system work?)

This means that 100% of ERs in a province, highly-urbanized city or overseas posts must be transmitted and received before the Comelec starts officially canvassing the votes from the said area.

It is different from a 2nd transmission route, where the ERs are directly transmitted to the Comelec transparency server, serving as the unofficial quick count. As of this posting, at least 95.87% of ERs nationwide and overseas have been transmitted.

Sought for comment, Comelec commissioner Christian Robert Lim said that problems in canvassing the votes in some areas – like in the province of Davao del Sur and in Rizal town in Laguna – were preventing them from releasing a partial count.

“Kung maglabas kami ng running tally, ang problema, ‘yung maling results, kasama ‘yan,” said Lim. (So if we release a running tally now, the problem would be, the wrong results would be included.) 

“So our concern is, if we'll do an automated [tally], we want to clean up all these issues [first],” he added, emphasizing that they want to release correct and accurate results.

Comelec spokesperson James Jimenez also told Rappler that a separate canvass report would come “when everything has been completed” after which, the 12 winning senators and the winning party-list groups are expected to be proclaimed.

Rappler learned from a poll official that they aim to conduct proclamations not later than May 19.

Until then, it will be a long wait for observers and reporters at the PICC. – Rappler.com

More than a month before the 16^th Congress wraps up and president-elect Rodrigo Duterte is sworn into office, his party is already eyeing the top spot in the House of Representatives.

Newly-elected Davao del Norte First District Representative Pantaleon “Bebot” Alvarez confirmed to Rappler on Wednesday, May 11, that PDP-Laban is endorsing him as Speaker in the 17^th Congress.

He also said he accepted the endorsement so he could “very well support the new president for his program of government.” (READ: PDP-Laban endorses Bebot Alvarez as House speaker) 

The secretary-general of Duterte’s party is no stranger to government. He already represented Davao del Norte in Congress for one term, from 1998 to 2001, and was also the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) secretary under the administration of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

But his involvement with the Manila International Airport Authority (MIAA) put him under the spotlight.

According to a Newsbreak piece published in 2007, Alvarez was implicated in wrongdoing for awarding the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 3 build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract to Philippine International Air Terminals Co Inc (Piatco) when he was MIAA senior assistant general manager.

A plunder case was filed against him and other officials in 2001 by the MIAA-NAIA Association of Service Contractors (MASO) after he was alleged to have gained something from the contract. According to a 2001 Newsbreak story, Alvarez's wife Emelita owned 33% of Wintrack Builders Inc, a company that supposedly profited from an excess of P76.49 million ($1.64 million) from excavation work it did with Piatco.

In addition, MASO alleged that no public bidding took place.

The Office of the Ombudsman dismissed the case due to “lack of evidence” on March 19, 2001. It added that the deal with Piatco was “proper and valid” based on the probes done by the House of Representatives. 

The case was just one of the many problems Manila’s largest air terminal faced before becoming fully operational.

Will Alvarez’ new term – and possible speakership position – be trouble-free? – Jodesz Gavilan/Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Now that the hash mismatch issue has been explained, is there any truth to the claim that votes for vice-presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos eroded at a "distinct pattern" after the error in displaying the character "Ñ" was corrected in the transparency server results files?

This question triggered a graph-making frenzy online among supporters of Marcos and those of his rival, Camarines Sur Representative Leni Robredo. 

Our own analysis of the unofficial, partial results data from the Commission on Elections (Comelec) mirror server shows that this argument is erroneous. We embedded the spreadsheet with our summaries of various cross sections of the data to help you analyze this issue on your own.  

The Marcos camp said that the alleged “cheating” script was introduced to the transparency server at around 7:30 pm on May 9. After that, they said, Robredo started gaining over Marcos. 

The data, however, show that Marcos’ total lead against Robredo still increased for an hour after the correction to the "Ñ" in the result files was introduced.

The correction was made so that entries that used "Ñ" would read correctly instead of having "?" in its place. Thus, entries like "SE?ERES" and "OSME?A" would read correctly as "SEÑERES" and "OSMEÑA".

This is why the Comelec earlier described the fix as a "cosmetic change" that did not alter the results. Former Comelec chair Sixto Brillantes Jr, who will represent Marcos in the canvass, also agreed.

What we saw in the data

1. Were the votes that Marcos was receiving dropping? Yes. But this can be explained by the total transmission pattern. Very soon after polls closed, the bulk of polling precincts transmitted their results. This is illustrated in the graph below, which compares transmission times for the past 3 elections in the Philippines which used the automated election system. 

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Looking at patterns, it is apparent that after polls closed – from 6:30 pm to 6:40 pm – the initial surge in transmitted precinct results pushed Marcos' total votes from 1.79 million to 4.78 million. His lead over rival Robredo in total new votes, however, decreased in the succeeding 10-minute intervals.

Ten minutes after the big boost, Marcos got only an additional one million-plus votes vs Robredo's 984,494 votes. Another 10 minutes later, he got only an additional 697,515 votes vs Robredo's additional 613,285 votes. 

Below is a snapshot of the summaries we made of votes for vice president per 10 minute intervals. (You can see the full data summary under Tab A of the spreadsheet embedded below this story.) 

Note that Marcos' lead over Robredo peaked at 8:30 pm at 938,622 votes, a full hour after the big boost, and also about an hour after the hash in the results file changed. This means that the change in the hash had no adverse bearing on his votes. He was still getting a bigger slice of new votes being transmitted. 

The results data also show that way after Marcos was overtaken by Robredo in the unofficial count at 3 am of May 10, there were periods in the transmission when Marcos received more votes than Robredo, further belying the argument of a "distinct pattern of erosion" in his votes.

2. If the transmission pattern is the reason why Marcos' votes were going down, and even the new votes Robredo was receiving were going down, how was Robredo able to overtake Marcos?

The explanation lies in bailiwicks and transmission rates. This is a snapshot of the map of regions. Those colored red favored Marcos more, while those colored yellow favored Robredo.

If you graph the percentage of precincts from each region that had already transmitted at a particular point in time, it would look like the interactive graph below. Hover over the lines to see the transmission level at each particular point in time. 

The interactive graph below shows precinct results accumulated over time. It clearly shows that in the regions that favored Robredo, precinct results transmission was not as fast.

As of 10 pm on election day, May 9, the NCR was almost done transmitting with 94.65% of precincts reporting. Transmission in the Ilocos region was also at 85.88%, while that for Region II was at 83.58%.

Altogether, these regions, known bailiwicks of Marcos, had already delivered 4,540,787 votes for him by 10 pm.

Note that the lines break at some points in the graph. This indicates that no precincts reported from that particular region for that specific hour. You can also double check this graph against the data summaries in the spreadsheet embedded above. 

As of 11 am of May 12, Robredo’s lead over Marcos in the Bicol region amounted to 1.3 million votes. In VII (Central Visayas), she was leading by 700,000 votes. In Western Visayas (Region VI), the gap between her and Marcos was almost 1 million.

Bicol, Robredo's home region, and Western Visayas, home region of administration standard-bearer Manuel "Mar" Roxas II, were both rather slow in transmitting results. Western Visayas had transmitted only 77.99% of results at that time, and has, so far, given Robredo a lead of almost 1 million over Marcos.  

Even as of 3 am of May 10, when Robredo finally overtook Marcos in the count, these regions still had a significant number of untransmitted votes. Only 88% of precincts from Bicol had transmitted at the time, while Western Visayas' transmission rate was only at 87.28%. 

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Compare the graph above with the graph below which shows at what point Robredo started overtaking Marcos.  

Robredo first took the lead in the VP race at 3:29 am on Tuesday, the day after election day. At first, her lead was miniscule, a mere 575 votes. 

At 3:48 am with 87.60% of precincts reporting, Robredo continued to pick up the pace at 12,899,569 million votes while Marcos had 12,890,683 votes – a difference of 8,886.

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You can examine the votes per region further if you go to Tab B of the spreadsheet. Colors in the spreadsheet indicate if the balance of total votes from the region favors Marcos (red) or Robredo (yellow) when the difference between the votes of the two candidates is computed. Again you can view the full data summaries and make your conclusions by examining the spreadsheet embedded below. 

The end of the 9 pm mark on May 9 indicates a point in the transmission when the number of precincts that transmitted dipped to 2,879 nationwide. The number of precincts reporting picked up again at 10:30 pm as shown in the snapshot below.

Again, you can examine and audit the data by navigating through the spreadsheet embedded below.  

There are different reasons for varying transmission rates. Some precincts were unable to transmit immediately because (1) there were still voters voting; (2) some precincts encountered signal issues, which is common in far flung areas; (3) failure of elections, which means elections in an area will have to be conducted another day.

Election officers being required to entertain voters within 30 meters from a precinct at closing time was an added factor in transmission delays.

Analyze the data and make your own conclusions

We embedded our summaries so you can independently make your own conclusions. We made the following cross sections of the data:

1. Tab A summarizes votes for VP at the end of each 10-minute interval. This sheet shows you the following information: total votes Marcos and Robredo received at each interval; new votes received at the end of each interval; the difference between the votes of Marcos vs the votes of Robredo for that interval. Colors in the spreadsheet indicate who got the most votes for that interval. 

2. Tab B summarizes votes for VP every hour for each region. The numbers depict vote increments at the end of that period for a candidate (Robredo and Marcos) less the votes for the other candidate. Colors depict who got more votes for that hour (yellow for Robredo, red for Marcos). Darker colors depict a high density of votes for that region at that moment in the unofficial canvassing timeline. Scroll to the right to see all regions. Scroll down to see later transmissions.

3. Tab C summarizes total votes received for all candidates per region. The darker the color, the more votes received at that hour. 

4. Remaining tabs show transmission status for each region at each point in time so you can compare the numbers with the votes. These are provided in percentage and in actual number of precincts reporting. Again, scroll to the right to see all regions. Scroll down to see later transmissions.

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Note that our analysis is based on the time stamps of each precinct, not on the frequency of updates coming from the Comelec transparency and mirror servers.

The system works this way: new precincts are just appended as additional rows in the results file. This means that even if you analyze only the last version of the file, you should see all the precincts that had transmitted so far, including their time stamps. 

Note that it is easy to produce graphs, but drawing conclusions based on incomplete and flawed data is both dangerous and irresponsible. As data scientists say, the most useful and solid conclusions can be drawn from data that are transparent and capable of being corroborated. – with Russell Shepherd, Dominic Gabriel Go, and Joben Ilagan/Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – In 2015, President Benigno Aquino III's last full year as the country's leader, he declared a net worth of P68.78 million.

This 2015 net worth is just slightly higher than the P68.31 million he declared in his 2014 Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALN).

But while Aquino's net worth declarations in his two recent SALNs aren't far from each other, it's a different story when his pre-presidency SALN is compared.

In 2009, a year before he was elected to Malacañang, he declared a net worth of only P15.44 million. Beside his latest SALN, it would reveal a huge 345.43% increase in net worth from 2009 to 2015.

The increase in Aquino's net worth (in percentage) is even higher than the increase in the net worth of his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Right from the start

It was when he assumed the presidency in 2010 that his wealth significantly increased.

While Aquino declared a net worth of only P15.44 million in December 2009 (his last annual SALN as a senator), it shot up to P50.19 million in June 2010 (his "entry" SALN, which is required of newly-elected officials within 30 days after assumption of office).

The difference is huge, considering that these SALN declarations were made just 6 months apart.

Contributing to this climb in net worth is Aquino's real assets, which grew from just less than a million in December 2009 to more than P33 million in June 2010.

His additional assets were said to be inherited, following the death of his mother, former president Corazon Aquino, in August 2009. These inherited properties include a residential house and lot in Quezon City valued at P13.8 million, and a commercial lot in San Juan City worth P7.02 million.

It was also reported that Aquino's camp declared P36.9 million in excess campaign donations, which led to conjecture that this could be a factor in the increase in his wealth.

But this was dismissed in a story by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), which said: "If he had enrolled his P36.9-million excess campaign donations as part of his income in 2010, according to the BIR's Revenue Regulation 7-2011 dated Feb. 16, 2011, Aquino should have paid millions more in taxes. BIR Commissioner Kim Jacinto-Henares tells the PCIJ that the excess campaign funds were not recorded in the Income Tax Return (ITR) for 2010 that the president filed within the deadline last Apr. 15."

In fact, the biggest increase in Aquino's cash came only in his 2011 SALN, where he declared having P26.22 million. It was previously P6.22 million in his 2010 SALN.

Aquino explained that the increase in his 2011 SALN was still because of inheritance finalized that year. But this only affected his real assets, and not his other personal properties.

One factor that could have contributed to Aquino's 2011 cash increase is the decrease in the value of his vehicles and receivables for that year. The decrease in the amount of these two assets from 2010 to 2011 reached more than P20 million, which is almost equivalent to the cash increase. 

Aquino had sold his Porsche car 6 months after he bought it in 2011. The SALN does not provide a breakdown of the receivables.

Higher than Arroyo

The high growth in Aquino's SALN exceeds that of his predecessor, Arroyo.

Aquino was elected in 2010, while Arroyo began her full 6-year term as president in 2004. While his net worth rose by more than 300% from 2009 to 2015, she registered an increase of over 90% in her wealth declaration from 2003 to 2009.

Arroyo was elected to the presidency in 2001 after the removal of then president Joseph Estrada. If her 2000 SALN (Arroyo's last before becoming president) were compared with her 2009 SALN, the percentage increase in her net worth is still lower than that of Aquino.

But these increases are nothing compared to the wealth accumulation of Vice President Jejomar Binay, whose net worth surged from P2.5 million in 1998 to P60 million in 2013– a 2,278.37% jump in wealth declaration. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – The rise of Davao City mayor Rodrigo Duterte to the presidency was a rollercoaster ride full of promises, profanities, and a very strong support base.

He currently enjoys an insurmountable lead over other candidates who – save for one – the tough-talking mayor had heated exchanges with throughout the campaign period. 

Duterte, the president-elect of many firsts, has also surpassed the number of votes Benigno Aquino III got in 2010.

What are the other important numbers that paint the colorful political and personal life of the Philippines' first Mindanaoan president?

– Rappler.com

Sources: Davao City Website, Rodrigo Duterte's Statements of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Work (SALN), Rappler's presidential poll monitor, and various Rappler reports.

MANILA, Philippines – It’s nearly a week after the May 9 polls, but the vote count for the vice presidential election is far from being settled as both camps claimed victory.

The 6-way race narrowed down to two, with Camarines Sur 3rd District Representative Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo and Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr still neck and neck. 

With 96.13% of the votes received by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) Transparency Server as of 9:54 pm Sunday, May 15, Robredo was ahead with 14,022,742 votes.

Close behind was Marcos, with 13,803,444 votes. The vote difference? Only 219,298, equivalent to around 0.5% of total votes. (READ: Hairline gap between Robredo, Marcos)

As we await the start of the official tally of votes by Congress for the presidential and vice presidential elections, let’s look at how the regions voted. 

As shown in the Rappler map above, based on the partial, unofficial count, Marcos enjoys a big lead in the northern parts of Luzon, dubbed the “Solid North” – his home region Ilocos, plus the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Cagayan Valley. He also won in Central Luzon and the National Capital Region (NCR).

That yellow-shaded area in a sea of red provinces is Tarlac, the home province of President Benigno Aquino III. Robredo placed first in Tarlac, but Marcos is just around 30,000 votes behind.

Meanwhile, Robredo won in her home region, Bicol, as well as in Mimaropa. She snagged a win over Marcos in Calabarzon by nearly 110,000 votes, but province-wise, Marcos won in Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal.

All regions in the Visayas – a bailiwick of Robredo’s standard-bearer, former interior secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas II – went to Robredo, except for one: Eastern Visayas. But Marcos has only a slim lead in that region: nearly 38,000 votes.

His win in Eastern Visayas can be attributed to the influence of his mother, former first lady now Ilocos Norte Representative Imelda Marcos, who hails from Leyte. In per-province results, Marcos won only in Leyte and neighboring Biliran, but he is putting up a fight in Samar where Robredo is currently leading by only a few thousand votes.

In Mindanao, Robredo won in 4 regions: Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga region, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Meanwhile, Marcos won in the Soccsksargen region.

In Davao region, neither Marcos nor Robredo stood a chance. Senator Alan Peter Cayetano prevailed there, as he was the running-mate of now president-elect Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos was a distant second, while Robredo placed third.

All in all, Robredo won in 10 regions, while Marcos placed first in 7 regions.

Meanwhile, Marcos led in the overseas absentee vote (OAV), followed by Cayetano and Robredo.

Below is a graph of the regional breakdown of the VP race, based on the partial, unofficial count as of Sunday. Note that other VP bets like Cayetano and Senator Francis Escudero performed well in many regions as well.

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On Sunday afternoon, Robredo’s camp claimed that based on their own computation, she would win the vice presidency. (READ: Robredo camp: Marcos win mathematically improbable)

Marcos also on Sunday declared that he had won, buoyed by information from the Comelec about the unaudited results of the overseas vote, where he placed first.

Who will emerge as the real winner? With such a tight race, we could only find out for sure at the official count of Congress, which will canvass 100% of votes for president and vice president. It is expected to start later this month. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Did cheating happen in precincts where some candidates fared exceptionally well, while other candidates didn't and instead got zero votes? 

Not necessarily, our findings show. But if cheating did occur, it looks like all of the vice-presidential candidates benefited from their opponents getting zero votes in their respective bailiwicks. 

Of the two candidates currently locked in a tight race for the vice presidency, the one who got the most votes from precincts that registered zero votes is Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who got 49,460 votes from precincts where Camarines Sur Representative Leni Robredo got zero votes.

Robredo, on the other hand, got 27,964 votes from precincts where Marcos got zero votes. 

Nationwide, more precincts recorded zero votes for Robredo than they did for Marcos. Robredo got zero votes in a total of 179 precincts nationwide, compared to Marcos' 133 precincts. See the regional breakdown of zero-vote precincts in the graphic below.

Precinct-level results

Zero-vote precincts became an issue after the Commission on Election started releasing precinct-level data through its www.pilipinaselectionresults2016.com website.

Netizens plowed through the data on the site and started finding fault in the voting results. Among those that caught the people’s attention were precincts that delivered zero votes for some candidates. Several users posted screenshots of where candidates were receiving zero votes. 

Supporters of candidates Robredo and Marcos, the top two in the vice-presidential race, started trading accusations of cheating on social media as many found the numbers they were seeing unbelievable.

US-based Filipino software engineer Ruben Canlas suggested one way to settle the argument.

“For argument’s sake, let’s assume zero votes do indicate some anomaly or cheating. Then, let’s find out who benefitted the most from forcing zero votes in electoral returns. This means finding all the locations where the zero votes happened. Then, we find the winning candidate by counting all the votes in that area.”

Rappler went through most of the precincts. We also investigated possible explanations for these precincts reporting zero votes for the candidates in the contentious vice-presidential race.

ARMM

One region that figured significantly when we went through precincts with zero votes is the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

The current ARMM regional governor, Mujiv Hataman, who ran under the banner of the Liberal Party (Robredo's own party) won by a margin of more than 40%, losing only in his rival’s province, Sulu. 

A total of 95 precincts in the provinces of the ARMM did not give a single vote for Marcos. 

Roughly half (47) of these are from Lanao del Sur. 

With roughly 36,404 registered voters and a turnout of roughly 86% (31,209 votes), these precincts gave Robredo 24,422 votes.

Robredo, however, did not win in all these precincts – 6 of the precincts that registered zero votes for Marcos went for Escudero, 6 for Cayetano, and one for Honasan.

Among the ARMM provinces, the one that delivered to Marcos the least number of precincts with zero votes – only 2 – was the province of Sulu. Abdulsakur Tan, the governor of the province, belongs to the Liberal party. But he is also a known Marcos ally. 

The opposite happened for Robredo: 41 precincts from the province of Sulu gave her zero votes. An additional 84 precincts also from Sulu, gave her less than 5 votes.  

Robredo also received zero votes from precincts in other provinces of ARMM, with the exception of Maguindanao. Maguindanao Governor Esmael Mangudadatu, got 64.6% of total votes cast in this province as of 11:56 am of May 17, 2016. He also belongs to the Liberal party. 

In the ARMM precincts that delivered zero votes for Robredo, Marcos topped the VP race, receiving 12,956 votes. 

Not all of the 53 precincts that registered zero votes for Robredo went for Marcos, however, as 5 went for Cayetano, 3 for Escudero, and one for Trillanes.

Home provinces

Marcos received zero votes from 7 precincts in Camarines Sur and 3 in Sorsogon, the home provinces of his contenders, Robredo and Escudero.

Marcos received less than 5 votes each from an additional 115 precincts in Camarines Sur, which when combined, gave Robredo more than 26,000 vote. 

Robredo, on the other hand, received zero votes from 73 precincts in Ilocos Norte, the home province of Marcos. Another 375 precincts gave less than 5 votes each to Robredo.

These 440-plus precincts combined gave Marcos more than 167,000 votes.

Robredo also received zero votes from 7 precincts in Davao City. These precincts all went for Cayetano, the running mate of Davao City Mayor and president-elect Rodrigo Duterte.

Overseas Absentee Voters

The Overseas Absentee Voters precincts belong to a completely different class. Several precincts recorded zero votes for most of the candidates, if not all of them. This can be explained by how overseas automated voting is conducted.

Overseas polling places had a fixed number of vote counting machines which was less than the number of assigned precincts in that polling station. Each assigned precinct had a corresponding SD card.

For example, Hong Kong which covers 93,978 registered overseas voters was asssigned 10 vote counting machines with 95 precincts and 95 corresponding SD cards. 

Unlike in the local elections where a voter was assigned to a specific precinct number, in the overseas elections, the ballots were fed into whichever vote counting machine was active for the voter’s assigned polling place.

When the limit for the SD card in use was reached – up to 1,000 ballots or voters – the SD card was replaced and stored. Depending on the turnout, there may have been SD cards that remained unused. 

Transmission of the votes of the SD cards was performed only after the elections closed on May 9, 2016.

This brings us back to the zero-data precincts. The data in SD cards that were unused are still transmitted to the different Comelec servers to indicate that they were not used.

In the case of Hong Kong, 44 of the 93 SD cards were not used and these were all transmitted to the Comelec servers as precincts with zero votes.

Bloc voting

In many cases, but not all, precincts that delivered zero votes also exclusively voted for a single candidate.

We’ve also looked at precincts where all the other candidates, to the exclusion of only that candidate, received zero up to less than 5 votes from the precinct.

These showed precincts that voted as a bloc for a candidate. These are discussed in a story on bloc voting at the barangay level. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – Will he be good or won't he? That's for the Cabinet that president-elect Rodrigo Duterte is constituting at present.

On Monday, May 16, Duterte identified former North Cotabato (now known as Cotabato) governor Emmanuel “Manny” Piñol as his Department of Agriculture (DA) secretary. (READ: LIST: Who's who in the incoming Duterte Cabinet)

Piñol may have been known in the past year as an ardent supporter of Duterte, announced mainly through viral Facebook posts throughout the campaign period. But going by his track record, he's more than just that.

His upcoming appointment is not his first foray into government. Just like the Davao City mayor, Piñol also has long years of political experience under his belt.

The good: Lower poverty incidence

A Newsbreak profile in 2003 described Piñol as “a politician by accident” who first ventured into politics when he substituted his father for the mayoral position in M’lang, North Cotabato during the 1995 local elections. He then served as provincial governor from 1998 to 2007 and vice governor from 2007 to 2010.

According to officials from the Mindanao Economic Development Council (Medco), Piñol helped push the Malitubog-Maridagao irrigation project. He is also credited for the bottom-up agricultural planning program of the province which focused on rubber, oil palm, banana, and coconut.

The two initiatives are said to have propelled the province out of the poverty trap.

During Piñol’s terms as governor and vice governor, North Cotabato saw an improvement in its poverty situation. From 41.6% in 2000, poverty incidence in the province dropped to 25.6% in 2009.

In 2010, he failed to reclaim the gubernatorial position after losing to incumbent Governor Emmylou Taliño-Mendoza who was recently severely criticized for the violent dispersal of protesting farmers in Kidapawan. The latest poverty incidence of the province is now higher at 48.9%.

Can Piñol apply what he did to his province to the entire Philippines?

Conflict with the MILF

Duterte promised peace in 3-6 months under his administration. The first president to have openly declared he is socialist, Duterte emphasized that his agenda for peace and order includes discussions with warring factions, including the MILF, among others.

When he was vice governor, Piñol was put under the spotlight for being the most vocal opponent of an agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). He was also identified with the Christian Convergence – a group that, according to a 2011 Mindanews story, strongly opposed “the idea of a sub-state and the expansion of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao."

Will the presence of Piñol – given his dissonance with the MILF – affect the “inclusive” peace and order agenda of Duterte?

Indicative of the armed group’s perception of the former governor, various news reports said Piñol topped the MILF's list of “peace spoilers” in 2011.

In 2008, he filed a petition with the Supreme Court to stop the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) between the government and MILF. The MOA-AD would have created the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) which would cover some provinces outside the ARMM, including areas in North Cotabato – Piñol’s bailiwick.

Moro rights group Suara Bangsamoro called on then president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to stop Piñol from “stirring people in their province by calling on them to arm” against the MILF. The group alleged that his statements “bolstered” vigilance against Moro civilian communities.

Piñol, in a Philippine Star story in 2008, was reported to have accused former Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Hermogenes Esperon – another name being floated to join the Duterte Cabinet– of threatening to stop military assistance to his province for opposing the MOA-AD. The charge was denied by Esperon.

The High Court, on October 14, 2008, declared the agreement unconstitutional and illegal. The decision, however, triggered clashes and attacks by the MILF in Mindanao which displaced more than 700,000 people. In fact, two banana plantations owned by Piñol were attacked by alleged members of the MILF.

Problem with IPs?

Although his younger brother and incumbent M’lang Mayor Joselito Piñol was recently lauded for his housing project for indigenous peoples in their municipality, the elder Piñol was sued in 2009 by the Federation of Matigsalug and Manobo Tribal Councils (Femmatrics) for violating sections of the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act (IPRA).

Citing Femmatric’s own investigation, Mindanews reported that Piñol, the self-declared farmer, obtained 300 hectares of land in Barangay Binoongan, Arakan, Cotabato worth P3 million. The land was allegedly covered by the Certificate of Ancestral Domain Title (CADT) awarded by Arroyo to the IPs in 2003.

Piñol, however, dismissed the case as “ridiculous.”

Given his background, will Piñol weigh down or boost Duterte’s peace efforts? – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – With only a hairline lead separating vice presidential candidates Leni Robredo and Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr, it's not surprising that both camps have tapped the services of battle-tested election lawyers.

Veteran poll lawyers Romulo Macalintal and Sixto Brillantes Jr are back in the national scene. Macalintal is currently lawyering for the leading Robredo, while Brillantes – who just ended in 2015 his stint as Commission on Elections (Comelec) chairman – is set to represent Marcos in the canvassing of votes in Congress.

It's a rematch of sorts for the two, following their face-off in the 2004 presidential elections. Macalintal defended former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, while Brillantes lawyered for her opponent then, Fernando Poe Jr. 

Arroyo won the presidential race, while Poe accused Arroyo's camp of committing election fraud.

According to a profile story published by Newsbreak in 2004, both lawyers began their election law practice in the 80s, and then went on to win quite a number of cases.

Brillantes graduated from San Beda Law School – the same as president-elect Rodrigo Duterte – and then passed the Bar in 1965. He placed 7th in the Bar exams.

Meanwhile, Macalintal obtained his law degree from the University of the East and passed the Bar in 1978.

During the campaign period for the 2004 elections, the two were first pitted against each other in a local disqualification case, the same Newsbreak story said.

"Brillantes and Macalintal first squared off over the candidacy of former Manila Rep. Harry Angping, who was later disqualified after being declared an alien. Brillantes represented Angping while Macalintal was counsel of barangay chair Alejandro Gomez, who filed the disqualification petition," said the same story.

Even in Comelec

The confrontation between the two lawyers went beyond winning cases.

A report by the Philippine Daily Inquirer alleged that the two were in competition in 2011 for the post of then outgoing Comelec chair Jose Melo. The opposing factions in Malacañang had their own preferences at the time.

Based on the report, the Balay faction – which supported the vice-presidential candidacy of Manuel "Mar" Roxas II in 2010 – was eyeing Macalintal, while the Noy-Bi (short for Noynoy-Binay) group – which was associated with Benigno Aquino III and Jejomar Binay – was pushing for Brillantes.

Both lawyers had worked for Aquino on separate occasions. Macalintal was Aquino's lawyer when he first ran as Tarlac representative, while Brillantes was with Aquino when he ran for president.

In the end, Aquino appointed Brillantes as the next poll chairman. Upon retirement in February 2015, Brillantes left the Comelec – just a year before the May 2016 elections.

Though often competitors, the two lawyers shared common opinions in at least two instances – when they urged Roxas to withdraw his electoral protest against Binay, and when they insisted that suspended Makati Mayor Jejomar Erwin "Junjun" Binay could still file his candidacy despite a disqualification order from the Ombudsman.

But for the 2016 national elections, the two went on divergent paths. Apart from the vice-presidential race, the two had also held clashing views on whether or not Duterte could legally substitute PDP-Laban's original presidential bet, Martin Diño.

Brillantes said Duterte should be allowed, while Macalintal opposed it. – Rappler.com

MANILA, Philippines – President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has started forming his Cabinet that will help him steer the country for the next 6 years.

Among them are incumbent lawmakers like reelected Las Piñas Representative Mark Villar who was offered the public works portfolio, and Duterte’s running mate, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, who would have to wait a year before he can accept the post of either foreign affairs or justice secretary.

But before they can formally become Cabinet members, they would have to give up their seat in Congress, in accordance with the Constitution.

According to Section 13, Article VI of the Constitution, no senator or member of the House of Representatives "may hold any other office or employment in the government, or any subdivision, agency, or instrumentality thereof, including government-owned or controlled corporations or their subsidiaries, during his term without forfeiting his seat."

It is also reiterated in Section 3, Chapter 2, Book II of the Administrative Code of 1987.

To fill up the vacancy that an elected legislator’s resignation will cause, Section 9, Article VI of the Constitution says that a special election may be held in a manner prescribed by law. 

The winner of that special poll, however, will serve only the unexpired term of his or her predecessor. 

The appointments of legislators to the Cabinet had happened in the administration of outgoing President Benigno Aquino III, as well as in previous presidencies. Here are some of the appointees:

Benigno Aquino III

• Samar 1st District Representative Mel Senen Sarmiento – appointed interior secretary in September 2015
• Cavite 1st District Representative Joseph Emilio Abaya – appointed transportation and communications secretary in October 2012

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

• Albay 3rd District Representative Joey Salceda – appointed presidential chief of staff in February 2007
• Tarlac 3rd District Representative Jesli Lapus – appointed education secretary in July 2006
• Camarines Sur 1st District Representative Ronaldo Andaya Jr – appointed budget secretary in February 2006
• Antipolo City 1st District Representative Ronaldo Puno Jr – appointed interior secretary in February 2006
• Cebu 5th District Representative Joseph "Ace" Durano – appointed tourism secretary in August 2004
• Senator Blas Ople – appointed foreign affairs secretary in July 2002

Fidel Ramos

• Surigao del Norte 2nd District Representative Robert Z. Barbers – appointed interior secretary in April 1996
• Senator Teofisto Guingona Jr – appointed executive secretary in July 1993

Corazon Aquino

• Pangasinan 1st District Representative Oscar Orbos – appointed transportation and communications secretary in January 1990
• Batanes Representative Florencio Abad – appointed agrarian reform secretary in December 1989
• Senator Raul Manglapus – appointed foreign affairs secretary in October 1987

All of them were deemed resigned upon their assumption of office in the Cabinet and other agencies. The lawmaker may also formally resign beforehand, as was the case of Senator Manglapus. – Rappler.com